You’ve heard it said more frequently since 2010 that politics have never been so polarized in this country.
Well I agree, and it’s about to get a lot worse.
We are at the point where the House of Representatives may actually impeach the second consecutive Democratic president of the United States — and do it before the end of the year.
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From gun background checks to Benghazi, IRS, Obamacare, the Veteran’s Administration and immigration enforcement, one thing is clear.
The bitter polarization between President Obama and his high-profile detractors over myriad issues is boiling over.
On top of that, the recent, intensified series of executive actions and orders has outraged many on Capitol Hill — most notably House Speaker John Boehner.
In response to Obama’s newest set of executive orders, Boehner stated publicly that that Obama is NOT faithfully executing the laws of the United States, in his opinion.
So, he plans to file a lawsuit to rein in Obama’s overreaching authority.
Long Overdue or Long Shot?
Boehner stated that, when he made those comments, it wasn’t about impeachment.
Yet, the truth is, that’s exactly what this may be coming to.
Will the 113th Congress see an Obama impeachment trial?
Meanwhile, Boehner probably also knows that he and the House of Representatives aren’t likely to prove they have standing to sue the president.
In other words, this lawsuit is likely to be dismissed. When it comes to enlisting the help of the courts, Boehner and his backers must prove that:
- Congress has been irreparably harmed by the president’s executive orders, and
- Congress has no other way to remedy the problems.
As we’ve seen time and again, Congress does have the ability to remedy its disagreements with the president via purse strings and passing laws.
Suing President Obama would be nothing more than a stalling tactic between Boehner and Republicans designed to buy time to cool down the Tea Party Caucus members who are making public their demands for impeachment.
Déjà Vu, All Over Again
Mark Twain famously said history does not repeat itself but it does rhyme. But the refrain may sound familiar for those who remember what happened 23 years ago.
Remember, Boehner has served in Congress since 1991 and was part of the House that impeached Clinton.
In other words, he has been here before. He knows firsthand that the negative impact for a vote of impeachment could end with acquittal in the Senate.
And in the current political environment, the battle would be incredibly negative, with nasty partisan politics seen by virtually all Americans.
The debate on the House floor alone could turn into a circus. I’m not taking any shots at anyone but both sides of the aisle would look and sound more credible with aluminum hats and antennae!
Boehner also knows a one-sided impeachment vote could backfire big-time. There may be no Democrat votes for impeachment.
Polls conducted during 1998 and early 1999, for example, showed only one-third of Americans supporting Clinton’s impeachment or conviction.
Remember, in the days leading up to Bill Clinton’s impeachment, the stock market actually rose!
One year later, CNN, USA Today and Gallup polls showed two-thirds saying the impeachment was harmful to the country.
I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to assume the outcome would be similar this time around.
The Tea Party Base:
Further pressing the impeachment issue is the Tea Party. It will likely confront Boehner and force him to bring an impeachment vote to the floor of the House regardless of his personal reservations.
Faced with keeping the Republican Liberty Caucus together or seeing it disintegrate, Boehner will opt for impeachment.
At this point, I have no doubt Republicans will have the votes in the House of Representatives to impeach President Obama.
Congress has the votes to impeach, yet there is no way the U.S. Senate will vote to convict the president and remove him from office.
Keep this in mind: In order for the U.S. Senate to convict the president and remove him from office, the Senate must vote with a two-thirds majority to do so. And that’s just not in the realm of possibility. Even if Republicans win a majority in the Senate, there won’t be 67 votes to produce a conviction.
Regardless of where you fall on the issue, there’s good news for investors …
As an investor the impeachment of Barack Obama would likely have NO LONG-LASTING IMPACT on the financial markets or your investment portfolio.
If impeachment becomes a reality, you can bet a good number of financial experts and gurus will predict the impeachment of the president spelling doom and gloom for Wall Street.
Many predict a 1,000-point nosedive or that gold will soar to $2,000 an ounce in response to another impeachment trial.
Consider this: In the days leading up to the impeachment of Clinton, the stock market actually rose!
Don’t pay attention to predictions of a stock market meltdown based on impeachment. With acquittal, any impeachment trial in the Senate will be nothing more than background noise and will prove meaningless by the time it’s over.
Stay focused instead on the Federal Reserve’s low-interest-rate and accommodative monetary policies; it is successfully coordinating with the world’s central banks.
Remember my bullish thesis — one that’s based on the United States enjoying a huge upcoming leap in productivity and efficiencies. I believe it will be driven by breakthroughs in technology, science, engineering and medicine.
Bottom line: We’re headed for an extended period of economic growth and low inflation. In turn, I expect the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to all double in the next three to five years with Dow at 34,000, S&P at 4,000 and Nasdaq at 8,000.
We live in exciting times. Thankfully, we get to invest in them too!
Watching Your Chickens,
P.S. If you missed my recent column about how we’ll get to Dow 34K, Nasdaq 8K and gold to 5K, simply click on this link.