Shutdown Shakes GOP Future, Starting With the New Ohio:

James DiGeorgia

By letting the Tea Party caucus force a government shutdown, GOP leaders sealed their party’s fate. And Virginia will prove it on Nov. 5.

That’s when Virginia, once a swing state, will elect Democrat Terry McAuliffe as governor in next month’s off-year election.

But it won’t stop there. Angry government employees, government contractors and their families will turn purple states blue, reduce the GOP to minority status in the House, and install a Democrat — probably Hillary Clinton — as president in 2016.

Don’t believe me … or don’t want to see that happen?

Given the current situation on Capitol Hill, this looks like the beginning of our new reality.

Thanks to this government shutdown, Virginia could very well take Ohio’s place as the state to win in every presidential election going forward. Without Virginia, contenders for the nation’s highest office will never see the Oval Office without a visitor’s pass.

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The government shutdown is causing pain all over the country, but Virginia is hurting the most.

The Old Dominion was the single-largest recipient of federal contracts in FY 2013, bringing in more than $38 billion. Virginia beats out much larger states like New Jersey, California and Texas, according to government figures. Nearly 175,000 Virginians — most on furlough — work for the federal government.

Ted Cruz

No amount of GOP advertising will convince this deep-purple swing state’s well-educated population that Democrats caused this government shutdown. Contractors are already announcing layoffs. Many unemployed Virginians hold Senator Ted Cruz and House Speaker John Boehner responsible.

Many of these same citizens are already suffering because of the "sequestration" squeeze. They won’t forget.

And there’s more …

  • Influence-peddling scandals were already dogging current Governor Bob McDonnell and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, the Republican candidate to replace McDonnell.
  • Social issues have both men lagging badly among likely women voters.
  • Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis scores surprisingly well in polls — and pulls right-leaning voters away from Cuccinelli.

At least four of Virginia’s House Republicans recognize the danger. They know an angry coalition of women, federal employees and government contractors can sweep them out of office next year.

Fearing their defense-heavy districts could pay a hefty price for the gridlock in Washington, they are pushing their colleagues to end the crisis swiftly.

  • Rep. Scott Rigell (R-Va.): "Time for a clean [continuing resolution]." [Official Twitter, 10/1/13]
  • Rep. Frank Wolf (R-Va.): Aides say Wolf agrees with Rigell and wants a clean continuing resolution. [The Hill, 10/1/13]
  • Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.) is telling constituents he would vote for a clean funding bill but hasn’t had "an opportunity to do so at this point." [Huffington Post, 10/1/13]
  • Rep. Randy Forbes (R-Va.) told reporters that he supports the Senate’s six-week clean funding bill. [The Virginian-Pilot, 10/2/13]

Others in the Virginia delegation are pushing behind the scenes to end the shutdown.

While Speaker Boehner looks for a way out of the shutdown mess, he seems oblivious to Virginia’s heavy dependence on defense contracts.

Northern Virginia is home to top military contractors including Northrop Grumman (NOC), General Dynamics (GD) and Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH). The Pentagon itself is in Virginia with a massive civilian workforce. Hampton Roads has a huge Navy presence.

Virginia is uniquely dependent on the federal government, especially the Defense Department, for jobs and economic growth. The shutdown would put Virginia’s House and State politicians in peril at any time.

Combined with a feminist backlash against conservative social stands and scandal clouds around the party’s candidate, the Republicans face political disaster in Virginia.

What I find especially amazing is House Majority Leader Eric Cantor seems oblivious to the danger. Yes, Cantor’s district around Richmond has the state’s smallest federal presence. But does Cantor really believe Democrats will miss the opportunity to use the shutdown against every Republican?

In many ways, Cantor takes the same position as Senator Cruz — promoting their own interests at the expense of their party. His "me-first" strategy could put a Democrat in the governor’s mansion and cost the Republicans several House seats next year.

Ken Cuccinelli

(photo credit Gage Skidmore)

Amazingly, even knowing that Cruz helped to engineer this incredibly damaging shutdown, gubernatorial candidate Cuccinelli is still using Cruz to raise money. At an Oct. 5 event, Cuccinelli avoided being photographed with Cruz, didn’t mention Cruz in his speech, and left the room before Cruz took the stage.

Cuccinelli knows how much trouble he is in, but he desperately needs the Tea Party money Cruz attracts.

I grew up hearing "whoever wins Ohio wins the Presidency." Now a Virginia loss will take all hope of winning a national election from Republicans.

Investors need to pay attention, too. Unless the shutdown ends soon, lost contract revenue will hurt the bottom line at public companies. Financial analysts on Wall Street will start reducing earnings estimates.

A big hit to 401(k) and IRA accounts could seal the Republican fate. Swing voters around the nation could put Hillary Clinton in the White House with a Senate supermajority on her side and Nancy Pelosi in the Speaker’s chair.

How will Republicans who think life is unbearable now deal with that consequence?

Good luck and best wishes,


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Your thoughts on “Shutdown Shakes GOP Future, Starting With the New Ohio:”

  1. Jim tricked Dwight into thinking he got a walk-on part on NCIS, so Dwight went to CA.
    The Industrial Revolution was another of those extraordinary
    jumps forward in the story of civilization. What this means
    is that no matter how much the cleaner fills up, there is no loss of
    suction power.

  2. I’m kind of disturbed to see an article like this one here, blaming – of all people Ted Cruz and the Tea Party – for the “shutdown” , which isn’t even a shutdown at all. The truth is the house is acting responsibly for ONCE because of men of integrity like Ted Cruz. If the media would simply tell the truth about all the appropriations bills sitting on Harry Reid’s desk, and this so-called President, lying to the American public trying to scare them and Wall Street, when there is no way we can default on our debt by federal law. We DO have the funds to pay the debt (still) and MUST by Federal law. Now I know this administration is anything but law-abiding, but nevertheless IS the law of the land and the government must pay its debt, period. The house should NOT cave! We cannot continue to run our government without a budget and this Continuing Resolution is NOT a budget; it is out of control spending by our government, who seems to want to own us all. The rich are getting richer and middle class poorer along with the poor — I just can’t believe I am hearing this come out of Weiss research — very disappointed indeed!


  4. James:
    You have hit the political nail on the head! I believe we are at the beginning of a period similar to the 1850’s and the rise of the Republican Party due to Abolition but this may put the GOP more in line with the Whig Party.
    Even the rise of the New Deal and FDR may be less historical than what appears to be happening to the GOP.
    Will a new party appear to occupy the center or will Hilary move that way with Bill’s influence and a Progressive Party appear on the far left?

  5. James is correct. Virginians are, for the most part, political pragmatists who can smell something rotten. Shutting down the government and not paying our debts is a poor strategy. Cantor’s district is not without economic shutters–they will definitely be affected. Of course, after we don’t pay our debts–that will be everybody. Then nobody will talking abut Obamacare. It’s time to defuse this by discussing all this after reopening the government and restoring services and not fooling with the debt.

    Also, complaining about the federal workforce is not going to remedy the current situation. Do not underestimate the ancillary value of federal dollars and jobs. Denigrating feds as faceless bureaucrats in anger does not make your argument any better. These people are working–or can’t–without pay. Would these detractors do that? So the answer is to spit on them? In Virginia, we’re smarter than that.

  6. James, This is the biggest pile of crap I have ever read from UWD. Some of more responsible Americans might just agree with Senator Cruz. And if Mr Cantor wants to further the cause then good for him. Its time to face the music. The spending is out of control. It needs to stop. In the same way the drunk at the bar needs to put the glass down and call a cab before he pukes all over himself. Or worse yet dies of alcohol poisoning. Yes there will be a hangover. But that’s done already. Now its time to sleep it off and sober up. I have a heart for all those affected by the sequester and “slimdown” but now they need to be self reliant and not government reliant. Senator Cruz is doing the right thing and so is Mr. Boehner. Somebody needs to slap the gavel out of Senator Reids hand and rip up the check book. Audit the Fed.

  7. I think you are reading too much into the national implications of what for Virginia voters this November, is essentially a local election. Both major-party candidates are repulsive to the majority of voters, and turnout is expected to be low.

    Terry McAuliffe, the presumed victor, is a carpet-bagging, professional fundraising Clintonite, with absolutely no experience as an elected government official. Enough said! Ken Cuccinelli, on the other hand is an overly-ambitious right-wing zealot who steamrolled his way to the Republican nomination, alienating countless moderates and independents along the way. I, for one, plan to write in the name of the person he trampled along the way, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, and I can assure you, I am not alone!

  8. If no one takes a stand,against unlimited govt growth,the U.S. will continue it’s decline.I guess,someone,like DiGeorgia,who brags about making hundreds of %,a year,on his investments,will do OK,no matter what happens to the majority of Americans.Govt is a wealth destroyer.The more wealth,transferred through govt,the more wealth is destroyed,reducing the average American’s standard of living.Just because DiGeorgia is on his way to amassing more wealth than Warren Buffett,another pro govt guy,doesn’t mean he should stop caring about everyone else.

  9. James, no wonder that the people that elected Obama twice are made up of the uninformed, ill informed and
    mentally challenged voters that want to be totally dependent upon the government for their total welfare and you are so full of it that you have a tingle down your leg when Obama’s name is mentioned. If that is the case with the voting public, then this country’s future is going to be a very dark one. Ron is right about Obama and he is a despot and dictator and the entire democRAT party have sold their souls for a bowl of porridge for their
    place in hell and you will be their guest of honor next to Obama, Joe Bite Me, Hillary etc.

  10. The bloated government workforce, it’s bloated salaries, benefits and pensions are a huge part of the proble. An immediate 10% paycut across the board for all government employees, federal, state and local, would do a lot to solve the problem. Accompanied by appropriate cuts in their benefits and pensions.

  11. James, if what you suggest comes true – that the voting populace is ignorant of the destructive path the Obama thugocracy is taking us down – and the liberal thugs rule all three branches – God Help America!

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