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It’s Martin Luther King Day, and most markets are closed for trading. Nevertheless, I want to give you an update. An important one, in my opinion.
Never mind that the markets have gone against me and my recent short-term forecasts. But the fact that gold, silver and the broader stock markets continue their New Year’s rallies changes NOTHING!
Gold remains below key resistance at $1,670 — all the way up to $1,700. While it may rally up to the top level of that range — all of my indicators continue to point lower for gold. I still expect to see at least $1,415 gold — and probably lower — before gold resumes its next major bull leg higher.
For one thing, short-term trading cycles will soon roll over to the downside. Momentum indicators are also overbought, indicating a top is imminent. Several other indicators I follow are rolling over as well.
For another, the dollar is rallying on the back of a falling euro. Some will say that because gold and the dollar have been going up together recently, when the dollar turns down, gold will skyrocket even more.
Maybe or maybe not. Relationships between markets are never cut-and-dried. They change. Perhaps right now, as the euro’s been falling, more Europeans are buying gold than investors from other countries. As a result, that’s putting upward pressure on gold even as the dollar rallies.
Ergo, if the euro starts to stabilize a bit and rally, then the shine will come off gold for those European investors. Subsequently, even as the dollar falls, they will liquidate their gold, or their purchasing will slow, and then gold will fall with the dollar.
My point is this: Fundamental forces and explanations for the short-term behavior of any market are pretty much useless. One can always make an argument that makes sense, spinning it any way they wish.
The only thing that matters is technical action when it comes to the short term. And the technical indicators behind gold’s recent rally are NOT, I repeat, NOT healthy.
Bottom line: If you acted on my previous suggestion to purchase inverse ETFs such as the ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL), I recommend holding that position.
The same goes for my previously suggested positions in silver, namely the ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL). Like gold, silver’s rally is not healthy. For one, silver remains below important resistance at the $32 level.
For another, almost all of my technical indicators remain bearish, strongly suggesting silver will collapse again, down to at least the $25 level, and very possibly much lower, to $22 to $23 an ounce.
As for the Dow Industrials and broader stock markets, it’s the same story. They are overbought. And the Dow is below a MASSIVE roof of resistance that stretches from 12,500 to 12,800 … it closed 2011 below an important level of annual resistance, and more.
So as strong as the broader markets may look, I strongly suggest not only caution, but short positions as well via my previously suggested purchases of the ProShares Trust Short S&P 500 (SH) or the more leveraged ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 (SPXU). Continue to hold these recommendations!
If you haven’t acted on any of the above suggestions, for whatever reason, there’s still time. You might want to consider purchasing them now.
Lastly, the euro’s been tanking, as expected. Since the first of the year it’s slid 2.6% against the dollar, a big move for just seven trading days. A bounce may be coming, but overall, the euro is headed much, much lower. If you acted on my suggestion to buy an inverse ETF such as the ProShares UltraShort Euro ETF (EUO), hold!
Stay tuned in to your inbox and enjoy today’s holiday.
Best wishes, as always …
Larry
P.S. The January issue of my Real Wealth Report publishes Friday, January 20. You won’t want to miss it. It contains some seminal forecasts for this year, plus new recommendations!
To join for the year, click here now. It will be the best money you spend this year. I repeat, click here now.
{ 63 comments… read them below or add one }
The technical picture for stocks has turned positive. This rally may last longer and go higher than you think. I wouldn’t mindlessly hold onto short positions here.
I dont know what hes talking about in adviseing peopleto hold the short positions hes mentioned most who bought them in November will be out of pocket now.
It’s only a loss when you cover the short. All the patient bears out there who are short will make money in a month or two
God bless you Larry! When I read what your critics say about your recommendations, I figure it’s because they have run out of money by following somebody else’s advice, and they now have anything else to do but criticize you.
Maybe they can borrow some from their in-laws, and try it again. I would suggest that they get a subscrition for RWR, and maybe they can be happy this time.
Many of these ETFs are not safe, especially ZSL. I am not sure why they are being suggested to people here. They are based on derivitive contracts and may go belly up during any market shock.
Ben cheap dollar swaps to the ECB are flooding the banks that dont feel selling assets right now…instead they are buying them like bonds from Italy and Spain lately….till they are forced to.
Never seen a billionaire technical trader.Seems like all the billionaires are long term investors,who don’t pretend or attempt to call short term moves.
Yes it seems that all these so called technical experts make all their money from subscriptions to these premium services.The jury is still well and treuely out on larrys predictions.So far hes called dow 9000 twice since summer 2010 and both times it gone up over 20%.way to go Larry way to go.
Larry,
Thank you. I appreciate the confirmation.
A fools rally ; look out below
The SPXU you talk of holding is at the lowest point ever so anyone who has followed you so far is looseing out big time as the markets continue higher and from what i can see the s&p is going to at least 1320 points.
It seems like a replay of his silver debacle from last year. If you listened to him a year ago, you lost a tonne of money.
Seasonally there is quite often a mid-January slump, so I’m sure we’ll here more “I told you so” from Larry until February when we’ll be told not top be fooled by the rally again.
I don’t get the part about silver’s rally not being healthy because it’s below $32. How does silver get above $32 if it doesn’t rally?
ALAN THATS THE DUMBEST THING TO SAY. IT DOESNT EVEN MAKE SENSE PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT SPXU AT 18 ARE GETTING SMASHED, MOST PEOPLE ARE BULLISH, HAD ALL THE SO CALLED COMPLAINERS BEEN FOLLOWING SOMEONE ELSE THEYD HAVE MONEY. THE HATERS ON THIS WEBSITE ARE OBVIOUSLY PISSED AT LARRYS RECOMMENDATIONS CUZ HE HASNT BEEN RITE SINCE 2002 WHEN HE SAID BUY GOLD BULLION. QUIT KISSING ASS ALAN, UR NEVER GONNA SEE THIS IDIOT IN BANGKOK AND U WORSHIP HIM AS IF HES CALLING 70% RITE ON HIS CALLS. HES PROB RIGHT 25% OF THE TIME. OIL WAS SUPPOSE TO HIT 67 ALREADY…..
AND I HATE WHEN PEOPLE WHO SAY U CANT TIME THE MARKETS PERFECTLY.. HES ALWAYS OFF BY AT LEAST A YEAR AND EV1 KKNOWS THE DAILY COMPOUNDING ON THE TRIPLE LEVERAGED STUFF NEVER FINDS ITS WAY BACK TO EVEN, HELL END UP THROWING IN THE TOWEL AND THEN THE MARKET WILL SELL. LARRYS ON CRACK
Dear Larry,
It seems that being in the business of selling subscriptions is a tough way to make a living. The crowd has turned on you, and your lack of response is not helping. When I started following your blog October of 2010, I was very impressed with your videos and articles for the first couple months. I can’t speak of your track record prior to following you in 2010, but I can say your calls have been rather frustrating since Jan 2011. It is clear to me that NO ONE can call a market movement with accurate timing. Perhaps answering the comments on your blog would relieve some pressure. I sense a lot of people have lost a lot of money in following your recommendations, and yet you seem more interested in defending your own ego, than addressing their complaints. I do wish you and your readers luck in the future. Take care, and better luck next time.
The ‘crowd’ hasn’t turned against Larry… just the non-subscribers who want Larry’s free advise & expect him to hold their hand when cycles don’t hit exactly as predicted. I’m happy to be holding cash now.
Martin Armstrong writes about the pendulum swing in stocks from overbought to oversold. Looks overbought to many of us. Don’t mind that, keep holding your stocks right & let’s see what happens.
For us RWR subscribers , Larry just published a 50-something page report in Weiss Research issues, with more reports to follow.
You haters are relentless. I’d like to know where you haters go for you’re financial advise.
Easy people. I know Larry sounds crazy but I am still waiting to see gold pop up to and beyond 1700. It sure seems to be taking it’s sweet time considering Iran/Europe/Fed. etc. etc. etc.!?!?!?
Bears are losing their ASSets.
The entire “rally” for the last 6 weeks has been on low volume. In addition, the market leaders are not leading. What does this tell you?
Not only that…but..the S/P is actually down in January based on the daily….it’s the futures that are deceiving the Bulls….
Not a big deal…just a technical nuance…doesn’t support Larry’s record or prognosis….but he is such a “tech-head” he should be making this observation…
You can never just throw away fundamentals….for so many reasons…this is Larry’s major flaw…
It tells me that SP1070 to SP1307 is a 22% gain. My IAU at 16 is looking GOOD. My SLV at 26 is looking GREAT. I don’t need no stinking advice.
Hello Larry,
Pretty lively discussion. I came over to this blog so I could give you some feedback. It seems that the problem here is that a whole lot of people are not taking responsibility for their trading results and want to blame you instead. You can only tell us what you think, but you can not control the markets. With all due respect, you have been right long term about gold, but your short term forecasts have been considerably off the mark. I think you may as well remain silent because I do not see anything satisfying the people that have blindly lost money. Until they can look themselves in the mirror and realize that they are responsible for their trading results, they are going to follow the rest of society and find someone else to blame.
I have learned a great deal over the last few years following you (Larry) and learning technical analysis. I thought I had learned so much that I made lots of trades, trying to “predict” the market. I lost about 25% and decidewd to rethink my investing strategy. The biggest lesson I learned was that you must understand your investing timeframe. I have begun using a strategy using weekly charts with Rate of Change (ROC), CCI, and Force index crossovers for buy and sell. My goal is to minimize risk and capture dividends. So far, the strategy is working wonderfully. I have used many of your resource recommendations, but watch the weeklys for my buy and sell. My concern with your strtategy is that you are too long term. I think you are way ahead of the curve in terms of understanding economic fundamentals and how they will affect the markets. But, I think your timeframe is too long for me to remain patient. Therefore, I use your information for a big picture look, but use my strategy for buy and sell over a medium term (weekly) perspective.
I’m not saying you are wrong Larry on where we are going (eventually); however it seems to me you are conceptually speaking back asswards with relying on the idea that technical actions are driving the market. This is absolutely not true. While there are those traders which (like you) do trade on technical actions that action is dwarfed by the tsunami of force brought on by the fundamental political, economic, and market forces. Obviously you know this. I think what you meant to say was that the fundamental forces are in so much flux and so complex that it is impossible to use that as a guide to what the future holds and so you have to rely on technical indicators. That is because it is somewhat impossible to guess what solution will be decided upon for the Euro debt and when that will occur, how the different financial players and governments will react, etc. In this regard perhaps the technical indicators could be used similar to the way doppler radar is used to determine when and if a super cell is going to produce a tornado. In that regard radar does not particularly see and measure all the localized forces of nature which are creating, driving, and evolving the storm, but it can see the effect of those forces and with the proper algorithms can to some large degree predict when a tornado will form, possible strength and size of tornado, hail size, etc.
Personally, I do however believe that the technical should be measured and evaluated in the foreground with the analyzed fundamental picture’s most likely scenario / analysis in the background. I think to some degree you do this, but we might have even better analysis if you relied on it more. That said, as you mention, the problem is that some of this fundamental direction is somewhat impossible to determine with certainty. In that regard my guess is that you are much more likely to be correct in the long term versus the short term. A short term signal may be going one way and perhaps look ‘maxed out’; but then something can change in the economic, market and political background which forces the indicator elsewhere or even more extreme. The technicals occur as a reflection of what is happening fundamentally and are a measurement of the summation of that action. At a certain level the technicals can be considered as a predictor but only as long as those market, economic, and political background forces continue in the same directions.
Bill: that was a brilliant description. Do you have a blog of your own?
PS. The sound on Larry’s videos suck
On another note, let me add that your website has had very bad internet performance for some time. It takes quite a while for each page to load. I have noticed that it usually gets stuck trying to load and wait for x.ixiaa.com. I assume this is one of your advertisers trying to load their ads on your page. You need to have your technical support folks look into the issue please.
Pardon me, correction, that was s.ixiaa.com
Larry, I see your logic and agree with you in general.
What is your view on the possibility of a QE3 and have you factored it into your analysis?
Dow closes tonight at over 12600 is that not over one of larrys targets.next week he will say the trends has change and the Dow is going to 20000.Then i will go short.
I take issue to the charges of being called “hater”. Keeping Larry accountable and showing people his track record is not hating. It is due dillegence. You can go back to his past posts where he sets levels and you can judge for yourself how accurate (inaccurate) he’s been. This is the best way to determine if paying him actual hardearned money is a good investment.
I am not quite clear about what many of the commenters here expect to get from financial advice columns and newsletters. The financial advice that I value, which includes Larry Edelson’s, presents not only views about what markets will do, but an explanation of the advice. What some people evidently expect is “hot tips” from some guru who has some mystical insight into the future of the markets, and he’s got to be right 98% of the time to justify his guru status – otherwise, on to this week’s new guru! If you find that kind of stuff valuable, more power to you. My idea is that you should consider not only the advice, but the reasoning behind it, and then weigh and evaluate the advice for yourself. Larry Edelson’s approach is primarily technical, like that of many other financial advisers. That’s clear, he says so, no mystery. If you don’t find the technical approach helpful or valuable, fine, look for other advice. I take responsibility for my own decisions and don’t blame failures on any financial adviser. After all, it is I who chose to follow, or not follow, the advice. Personally, I don’t expect anyone else to do my investment planning for me, and I don’t view any of the people whose advice I value – like Larry’s – as gurus to be followed slavishly, but as people who present reasoned views for my consideration. I think that the technical approach has its limitations, but is of some value to me. I would like the world to be such that I could invest simply on fundamentals; but today’s markets are manipulated to such an extent that fundamentals don’t have enough to say, except very long term, and I am now approaching age 70; and in today’s environment, fundamentals are often heavily disguised and impossible to discern. The technical approach seems to me to provide what is mostly a crudely empirical measure of psychology, or market “sentiment”. It’s predicitive and explanatory value derive in no small part from the fact that so many people trade on technicals; and that means that technicals are, to some extent, a controller, and not a mere reflection, of sentiment. In any case, I think that people should spend the time that they waste in whining in analyzing and investigating trading and investment possibilities and taking reasoned decisions. If they find that Larry’s advice is not helpful, they should just look elsewhere. And they should not “follow” anyone’s advice but should rather take such advice as an input and follow only their own judgment. After all, who is going to take the loss? Not the adviser! Or who is going to make the gains? Not the adviser. If you can’t be bothered to investigate and base your actions on your own judgment, perhaps you shouldn’t be managing your own investment portfolio. In fact, you should perhaps not be investing at all.
Larry is the only person out there right now that is bearish on the metals/market short term. There is no one else out there that has this position. This takes courage and I think it is the right call at the moment. To all the haters: if Larry is right he is protecting people who would otherwise buy at these levels and then would be left holding the bag when things turn down again. We shall see soon enough. Thanks Larry for posting and updating us that your position has not changed despite the recent up movement.
Larry is not the only guy whol have been bearish recently. There are others too that I follow. Especially the guys who believed in the linear inverse relationship between dollar and gold/pm/materials have taken it to chin.
Although dollar has broken out in technical terms, all pms/materials have rallied at the same time.
I personally thing, this is all because of BRICs and most of the CBs are done with tighting, rather EMs like China/India will soon start easing.. so go figure what is going to happen to all the metals!!!
So in the short term Dollar seems to be going up in terms of Euro, dollar is actually weakening against the hard sold rupee and the likes!!!
Its amazing how Larry has been consistently wrong for more than a year now
Do you and Brodrick work for the same company? He says gold will go up…you say gold will go down. One of you guys might be right eventually!
silver miners sure aren’t very exciting today given the strength in the metal.
Larry is a good person, BUT recommends very dangerous ETFs all the time. If you are in like 4 Proshares ETFs, do you really believe you are diversified? Are you crazy?
ETFs are often based on derivatives and have huge counterparty risk. ETFs are designed to take money from the small guy, while making him feel like a big guy option trader. If you don’t believe me, check it out…
Larry recommnds ZSL, a horrible fund. One day silver gained about 4.8% and ZSL lost 18%! Volatility is deadly in ETFs and they are sometimes frauds. Many many days the proshares shave 0.2% from you, over and over. That is for one day, as the prospectus says. Over like a few weeks, it’s bigger losses, sometimes huge.
ttp://yamanote.hubpages.com/hub/ETF-Analyst-Leveraged-ETFs-are-Toxic
ttp://seekingalpha.com/article/141517-why-etfs-are-a-scam
I hope these links will work so I can warn you, if not do a search for
ETF-Analyst-Leveraged-ETFs-are-Toxic yamanote
why-etfs-are-a-scam seeking alpha
Larry, care to explain why you push Proshares ETFs so hard? At least with stocks you OWN a part of a company, that will not be rehypothecated out. Also ETFs using futures, you can forget about SIPIC protection.
THANKS LARRY>>> Just finished loosing my a** with Silver today. Keep up the good work.
so much massive resistance, u dumbshit dow is in a slow grind up nothing can stop it, u prob have no more profits in zsl either. oh larry. just another friday wrapping up what was a awful week fo ru
” Larry is the only person out there who is bearish ” ….the NewSubscriber wrote … I’m sure you are NOT reading all of them … impossible to do but I read a few myself who are not going for THIS RALLY right now .
David Bensimon who has been wrong from June 2011 on – and cost $ 3600 per year and not $ 90 like Larry – has joined Larry’s that we will go to ..SPX to 1018 / TSX to 10,000 / Silver to $ 21.50 / Gold to $ 1350 and oil back to low $ 70′s / Copper to $ 2.60′s . All should be done into mid April 2012 .
Will know by April who is correct . My personal oppnion …. it would be a hoot to see them both wrong .
While I enjoy reading or watching Larry’s analysis I’ve never gambled on his forecasts because they more times than not are mistaken. While I agree that we should all take responsibility for our own investment decisions you have to have a thought for those novice investors or others less financially literate than many on here who following Larry’s convincing arguments could easily feel encouraged into following his recommendations which for maybe 99.9% of them are unsuitable.
Larry has a responsibility to them to remind them to take a long term view on their investments and not to take punts on the next short term market movements. No doubt some will have already given up and sold out of Larry’s recommendations and taken a substantial loss. Therefore the attacks on Larry are understandable but maybe unnecessary as it seems that Larry’s recommendations alone are sufficient to discredit him.
Larry, I’ve been holding off buying silver based on your advice. I now wish I’d bought a couple weeks ago when it was 26.50, as it’s hard for me to imagine it’s going to get there again in spite of your technical indicators… there is little doubt that the silver market is manipulated beyond belief, as anyone who’s followed Ted Butler knows. Is it possible that the manipulators are actually manipulating the market by pumping and dumping based on what they know investors who follow the technicals will be doing? If that’s the case then following the technicals is doomed to failure. I’m in my 80′s and even tho I don’t pretend to understand all the nuances of technical analysis I TRUST that you do and I would like to take advantage of your 30 plus years of technical experience to work with in my understanding of the various wave theories which have done very well for me over the years.
Also I wish you would explain just how the inverse ETF’s that you recommended will work to our advantage. Do we buy them so that when the price of silver goes down, you can sell them, make a profit and use that profit to buy more silver at the reduced price?
I want to subscribe to Real Wealth but after reading the blurb on the “reports” you’re offering, they say this is what you expect they will do in 2011, which means they were produced before 2011…. have they been updated? or should hold off till you come out with new reports? I don’t feel we have too much time to get in this market again as I believe the world financial markets will crash between early March and the middle of ‘April which means that the price of silver will probably sky rocket for a long time, probably years.
Thanks for your hard work, I enjoy your reports and read them religeously and look forward to learning from your Real Wealth Report
Regardless of whether you are a bull or bear it is only prudent money management to use trailing stops in order to lock in profits or cut your losses to a minimum. Technical analysis should at least be used as an adjunct to fundamental analysis. When the S&P 500 decisively broke through the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern at 1265 all short positions should have been closed out and long positions should have been established. The projected upside of this pattern is 1360-1370 and there’s a chance the S&P 500 could hit 1450-1500 in this run. Silver looks like it is going to at least 36. and Gold is on the verge of breaking it’s downtrend. You can tell the tone of the market has changed as all news out of Europe is being ignored. It’s better to listen to what the market is saying than try to tell it what to do.
1/19/2012 you issue special bulletins in them you give specific buy reccomendations . In your real wealth report dated 1/20/2012 you tell your subscibers to stand pat and wait for your signal. What gives?
I don’t think the technicals should be consulted in isolation though. The Baltic Dry Index is extremely low right now, Bernanke is NOT going to do another QE next week the way everyone is expecting, and Dellara has left Greece and no agreement is going to be made by next week. it’s quite possible this is a sucker’s rally on low volume with the intent and success by the bigger players to get people’s stops triggered past the lines on the chart where everyone and his mother is now going long. There was also an interesting piece on Max Keiser he had on Chris Cook who was talking about what he saw as a collapse in the oil price within the next 6 months due to fact not all market relevant info is in the hands of market participants. His article is also on the oil drum site.
thanks Heidi I just heard Bensimon’s interview, I think he’s correct.
For anyone interested. I have been following Jim Shepherd as well as Larry. I can send you some audio clips and his monthly newsletter. email lfatboyl@yahoo.com if interested. He also believes this is a sucker’s rally.
The Study of Cycles confirms Larry’s call on gold. While it might rally into Mar/Apri, it won’t go higher than 1800 and then the final down leg happens by Jun/July. Then blast off!
Crystal ball analysis. Even if what you say comes true it makes no sense to hold onto a short position while gold is rallying to 1800.
Larry, I’m a subscriber and must say I’m puzzled and worried.
I’ve always understood and accepted that the various experts at Weiss have different strategies and different ideas on where the market is going and how to make money. That’s fine. Of all the Weiss experts, I’ve believed you had the best grasp of things, the most experience, and so I’ve generally followed your recommendations.
Until now.
What threw me were your bonus reports delivered last week. Both the overall thinking and the recommendations are diametrically opposed to what you’ve been writing and saying in RWR for at least a year.
RWR: Dow going to 9,000, therefore short the Dow, gold and gold mining set to fall further so short gold and get out of mining, stay patiently in short-term Treasury money markets pending a big correction.
Bonus reports: No mention of Dow. Buy gold miners (AEM, GSS, KGC, AUY) and natural resources ASAP, and, most curiously, get out of cash and money markets entirely except for 6 months expenses.
I suddenly feel as if there are two Larry Edelsons. Not a comfortable feeling. Would greatly appreciate a detailed clarification. Thank you.
I agree it seems contradictory.
I agree with Edward and have asked the same of Larry via several formats but no answer…yet. There’s something terribly wrong here and it definitely does not make sense unless it’s an outright error…explanations please….
Bob, I think Larry has two forecasts. One is an intermediate play and one a long play. Example. Short term PM/stocks will go down because of fear/panic when euro goes down and dollar goes up. After the dust settles and US debt is the focus, PM/stocks goes up, dollar goes down. Each investor has to decide what play they want to employ.
Lock, you may be right. But Larry owes us all a detailed explanation ASAP, don’t you think?
these stupid apocolypse commercials suck.. next year theyll be saying in 2013 and they will haVE THESE DUMBASS COMMERCIALS TILL THEY GO OUTTA BUSINESS
dow doesnt wanna go down larry, ull be lucky if it sees 12000.
u idiot
get ur head out of ur uncommmon wisdom ass larry
you are a stupid piece of fucking shit larry u are making all ur people work till they die this is a retirement fund and ur fucking picks leave everyone fucking broke u dumbfuck
right on the money larry. resistance in the dow 12500-12800 silver reistance at 32 gold 1670-1700
looking perfect larry.. HA NOTTTTTTTTTTTTTT U IDIOT
OK, gold has now broken your 1700 resistance level. Now what?
I don’t know how anyone would be “broke”, manny. I have hedged my gold position with GLL just as he advised and my portfolio is still up, albeit NOT AS MUCH, but I do sleep at night knowing I’ll be fine if we do get a downdraft.
The markets are having a bit of a consolidation at these levels. There’s still time to dump any short positions and go long for the next leg up. The Fed and ECB have basically given the all clear signal for further gains in stocks and precious metals. Even Dr. Doom says that the world economy may not implode until 2015 due to all the money printing by various governments.
Listen folks and listen carefully. All markets are totally manipulated by the central banks, FED, ECB, etc. Interest rates are artificially set and controlled to allow the banking cartels to profit. Therefore, unless you are on the inside and know in advance what decisions the cental bankers are gong to make, it is very difficult to make money in the markets. Charts, fundamentals, sophisticated computer analysis, etc. are worthless and mean nothing anymore. We have a totally corrupt, fraudulent and criminal market system now and it is only going to get worse.
I kind of like Manny’s comments, I can use some comic relieve at the end of the day. Just one suggestion for Manny. You have to stop sugar coating things.
On a serious note, I really don’t see Larry to be wrong yet. So, I’ll stick around for a while.
Besides, one can always use his/hers own judgement on the top of somebody else’.
Unfortunately, market analysis is not a precise science – it’s an art.
Even the best analysis must allow some room for error.