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What would you do before you go visit someone whose help you desperately need? Would you give him a one-fingered salute with your middle finger?
Well, President Obama is about to make his first visit to China, and that is exactly what he has done to the Chinese leaders.
I say that because the administration slammed another tariff on Chinese steel pipes last Friday. How big of a tariff? Duties of up to 99% … ouch!
That is the largest trade sanction the United States has made against China. From a diplomatic standpoint, it’s a very bad move.
This isn’t, by the way, the first tariff the United States has placed on Chinese products recently. Since September, Chinese tires have been taxed for an extra 35% duty.
Click here to see my UWD column in September about tariffs on Chinese products.
So far, the Chinese responded with cutting remarks, but are almost sure to follow up with even more retaliatory duties and tariffs.
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| Commerce Ministry official Yao Jian says China will take measures in retaliation of U.S. tariffs on Chinese products. |
Clearly, the Chinese Commerce Ministry is not happy. It criticized the tariffs on Chinese pipes as “protectionist” and said they violate World Trade Organization rules and are a blatant breach of the agreements by Group of 20 major economies to avoid protectionism.
“China resolutely opposes use of such protectionist practices, and will take measures to protect the interests of domestic industry,” said Ministry official Yao Jian.
Additionally, China announced a new anti-dumping investigation of U.S. auto imports. Chinese automakers have complained that Obama’s multi-trillion dollar bailouts of General Motors and Daimler Chrysler were subsidies that gave American car makers an unfair advantage.
Tariffs on U.S. autos are probably right around the corner. Since China is one of the few markets where auto sales are strong, a retaliatory tariff on American cars would just crush the little life left in American automakers.
That’s not all; the Chinese steel industry is claiming that American steel companies are selling stainless steel at artificially low prices and have “caused injury to the Chinese market.”
Can you say, “Trade war?”
What I don’t get is that our President will tolerate some of the worst totalitarian thugs and America haters in the world, such as Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez and Moammar Kadafi of Libya, yet kick political sand in the face of a country that loans our country $20-plus billion a month.
That’s the typical size of our monthly trade deficit with China. Not to mention the $700 billion of U.S. government debt that China holds. If China decides that it no longer wants to loan us billions of dollars each month, the U.S. dollar is going to get crushed.
Well … the dollar has already gotten clobbered, but it is about to get a lot worse when the Chinese lose their appetite for U.S.-dollar-denominated debt.
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What’s this mean for your investments?
At some point, our combative trade policy and ballooning national debt will (1) send interest rates higher as the Chinese become more reluctant to lend us money and (2) also drive the Chinese to diversify their reserves and assets away from the U.S. dollar.
That’s bad news for all dollar-denominated investments, and the best way to protect your portfolio and even profit from the falling dollar is to add some non-dollar-denominated investments to your portfolio.
Here’s what you should be doing:
- CUT YOUR ALLOCATION TO U.S. STOCKS; INCREASE YOUR INTERNATIONAL STOCK ALLOCATION. Without fail, history tells us that a country with a debauched currency is headed for some serious economic pain … or worse. Where you want to invest is in countries that run a budget and trade surplus as well as increasing GDP. Today, the only places you can find that are in Asia and South America. I highly recommend a heavy allocation to Chinese stocks.
- CUT YOUR ALLOCATION TO LONG-TERM U.S. BONDS. An inevitable consequence of a falling dollar is rising interest rates. At some point, we will have to offer higher yields to compensate them for buying bonds that continue to lose market value. The last thing you want to own are long-term bonds in that environment, so keep all your maturities under five years.
- INVEST IN A MOUTNAIN OF INFLATION-FIGHTING HARD ASSETS. Hard assets — gold, oil, copper, coal, uranium, timber, potash, iron ore, cement, etc. — are one of the few asset classes that could thrive in the falling dollar trade war that I see coming. Also consider hard assets companies, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (NYSE: CEO), Yanzhou Coal (NYSE: YZC), Sino Gold (Australia: SGX), and BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP).
- BET AGAINST THE HOUSE. And if you’re really adventurous and have a little mad money you can afford to lose, you could consider investing in some inverse exchange traded funds. These inverse funds are designed to increase in value when stock prices are falling and are tied to benchmark indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, or even allow you to target specific sectors such as technology or retail.
Lastly, I want to warn you that the WORST MOVE you can make today is to do nothing. The United States may be hastening the arrival of a bear market with an ill-conceived trade strategy, but we’ve been running insanely high budget and trade deficits for years. Like a yuppie with a wallet of maxed out credit cards, we’re in big, big trouble.
The four moves I outlined above will not only help you avoid the pain, they will help you profitably zig when everybody else is getting clobbered by the zags.
Regards,
Tony
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{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Tony,
Prosperity in a country and/or in a society does not come due to economic activity in one or two sectors that employs a limited percentage of population. Prosperity does not come either from economic activity fueled by debt as we have seen recently. Prosperity comes when average man or woman gets gainfully employed (i.e full time, and by this I do not mean minimum wage job) and of course he/she starts saving a percentage of the earnings. However, the majority of people will remain unemployed or under employed for years to come because of the fact that there will be no jobs available as there will be no industry or service sector in North America (or wesetrn Europe) other than those in resource, energy and commodity sectors (and health care and government). Certainly, the government will be one of the major employers for years to come. And why not that should be? the Private sector has miserably failed to provide sustainable employment to masses.
This is because the self indulgent, selfish and super rich owners of private industries shipped work to developing countries in order to amass super profits. They have been paying slave labour wages for manufactured goods and saling these to consumers here at inflated prices (compared to the cost of production) making fabulous earnings. However, they forgot that this will not be sustainable for long and will backfire at them as when the empire of debt collapses and causes depression and when there are no jobs, there will be no consumers and no buyers for their goods and services including their fancy gadgets. This siutation was aggravated by VOO-DOO economists like you guys who sat in Ivory Towers and, lived in fancy world and were out of touch with any reality as they kept earnestly professing for free flow of goods and services (i.e free trade as we all know). They thought free trade as the panacea to all problems. However, they failed to realize that if there is no manufacturing here, there would not be any jobs to support the standard of living and hence no middle class. Consequently, no one would be available to buy the fancy gadgets (made in China) from the businesses.
Additionally, the same voodoo economists also professed regressive taxation, i.e. reduced taxation on the rich and increased taxation on the middle class. Before seventies, the taxation policy was highly progressive, i.e. more taxes was being paid by the rich and less burden was there on the middle class. However, this started changing from seventies. And when corrupt Ronald Reagan came to power, the environment transformed completely in favour of the super rich.
Obama is very much on the right track. Placing hefty tariff on imported goods and services is the best thing to happen to the American middle class, as manufacturing will come back to America. You are comparing this with Smoot Harley Act imposed during the great depression and predicting that this will worsen the job market. Nothing can be farther from truth. During great depression, America was the manufacturing hub for the world and retaliation from other countries in the form of counter trade barriers depressed the sales of American products abroad. Howere, presently America is not a producer country but rather consumer. We do not have any manfacturing industry remaining. Hence any counter tariff from countries like China and India on American products will hurt them a lot more that the US as our export is much much feele compared to imports. That is, there will be huge number of jobs created/saved compared to a small number lost. In fact this is the only way American economy can be brought back to charge. By bringing in trade barriers to imports, Obama is securing his second term as middle classes will become great fan of him and will vote for him again. Of course, the super rich and people like you would not vote for him. Who cares for the opinion of the marginal minority, anyway. You guys had your cake and ate them too. Now the tide has turned, you run for cover. Middle class will be back to power as was the case before the Regan era. Down with free trade! Cheers Obama! Cheers Middle class.
I was among a group of USAF Aircrews who in the late 1040s flew surveilance missions off the Korean coast.We photographed and recorded the south bound Russian ships and their deck loads of Tanks ,artillery etc headed to the Chinese Communists While in Washington the Truman adm did nothing.[ The problems began with the only effective force,as now credited by the Japs,The Flying Tigers and it’s treatment by a Jealous Pentagon and ADM.The do nothing process was repeated when the Chinese took over the Korean UN Police Action.I try my best to buy nothing made in China and sure won’t buy stock there and wish the leaders the worst! An old old reader Ole