The candidate who wins on Nov. 6 may help determine how you invest in 2013. With the election just a dozen days away, President Barack Obama could very well hold on to his job. The good news is, there are plenty of reasons why this would be beneficial for investors.
Under Obama’s leadership, the stock market has soared, and the economy is making steady improvement. If he is able to pursue his policies for a second term, three areas in particular stand to benefit most, which I’ll detail in today’s video.
For your trading profits,
Sean
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Video Transcript
Hi, this is Sean Brodrick for Uncommon Wisdom Daily.
The stakes in this year’s presidential election feel unusually high. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are offering vastly different agendas for the next four years. And which candidate wins on November 6 may help determine how you invest in 2013.
Under President Obama’s leadership, the stock market has soared, and the economy is making steady improvement. If he is able to pursue his policies for a second term, I believe that three areas in particular will stand to benefit most.
The first is the real estate market. As you can see, U.S. housing starts have been trending higher for more than a year, and have really picked up in earnest over the past couple months.
The same can be said for home prices. This improvement is due to the Federal Reserve’s easy-money policies, and President Obama’s efforts to get homeowners out from under an overhang of debt.
Mitt Romney has said that if he wins the election, he’ll replace Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and pursue an austerity agenda. I doubt he’ll follow through on either threat, but just the possibility of a change in policy could be enough to rattle stocks.
Conversely, a second Obama term would likely produce even more upward momentum in the housing market. One way for investors to benefit from that trend is with builders and home-improvement stocks, such as Home Depot.
The second area that has steadily improved under Obama is the labor market. Obviously, there’s still much work to be done on this front, but the truth is that the unemployment rate is dropping fast. That’s good news for temp-job agencies such as Manpower.
But more employed workers also means more money being spent on all sorts of retail goods. And perhaps the biggest improvement is in auto sales. They’re already surging, up 13% in October. If that pace continues, we should reach 14.9 million units by the end of the year, a very strong number.
There’s no question that ultra-low interest rates have spurred this growth, and Bernanke has promised to keep rates low into 2015. That policy, along with an improving economy, is good news for automakers, and all sorts of U.S.-based manufacturers. So I think stocks like General Motors and Ford could do very well in a second Obama term.
In addition to these plays, I have 10 other areas — and 13 red-hot picks — that I’m ready to reveal if President Obama wins the election on November 6. These presidential profit-doublers are part of our new “Election Day Survival and Prosperity Guide” — and you can get it delivered directly to your inbox.
It’s designed to help you find select investments designed to make the most of the next four years, no matter who ends up in the Oval Office.
I’m Sean Brodrick for Uncommon Wisdom Daily. Thanks for watching.
{ 34 comments… read them below or add one }
do not forget the national debt has risen more than anything. Wait till the bill comes due Sean
Sean:
How can you even say it would still be beneficial if Obama wins – AT THE EXPENSE OF OUR FREEDOM!!! YOU FORGOT TO ADD THAT!!!!!!
I’d love for you to explain your position more. Thanks!
That was a pretty transparent commercial for BO’s re-election. Sorry, but I’m not buying it.
There are many stocks and sectors that would do well, or continue to do well, with an Obama re-election. But Romney has just as good of a chance of seeing the inside of the Oval Office, and our colleague Tony Sagami shares those possibilities on Tuesdays. Sean’s articles seem to generate a lot of discussion but they really are intended to be simply the other side of the content we share on Tuesdays. Thank you to you and everyone for keeping the discussion going!
Sean your NE liberal roots are all over this. Stocks have soared due to a printing press with never ending supply of ink. The labor stats you give are bogus. You really think this nations economy is heading in the right direction?
The truth is there are foreclosure signs up all over the country, the only reason unemployment has ticked down a .10 of a percentage point is do to seasonal hiring for the upcoming holidays. You said it your self.
“That’s good news for temp-job agencies such as Manpower.” Temporary jobs is not a strong foundation for an economy.
Our dollar is going to tank.
Be honest with the folks your advice to make money off another Obama term is short term. Long term we are in trouble.
Your in the financial services business. How long can you keep borrowing money with no plan to pay it back?
We need a grown up in Office to give this country the medicine it needs before it perishes.
If I ever thought about using your services this video sealed the deal for me not to consider your advice.
Thanks for writing in, Bob. The labor stats are from the same agency that published them during the Bush administration, so if they’re bogus, they’re bipartisan bogus. It’s hard to separate emotions from investing sometimes, and I think that’s the problem you’re having. You can make money no matter who is in the White House. If you don’t want to follow my recommendations, fair enough, but maybe you’d prefer Tony Sagami’s outlook, as he is very conservative.
So you’re voting for Obama? What about the inflation that is sure to come from reckless Obama/Bernacke policies? We are heading for Greece status. What about the loss of freedom from ObamaCare and more Obama regulations? What about the economic uncertainty created by Obama policies and regulatory policies?
I personally think Romney will be a breath of fresh air for businesses and business expansion.
Hi, Roy. Thanks for writing in. To answer your questions: 1) Our environment can best be described as “dis-inflationary” right now. 2) We aren’t headed for Greece’s status anytime soon. 3) Studies show that President Obama hasn’t put in more regulations than other Presidents — I covered this on the blog, with links and a chart 4) I’d say the economic uncertainty came from the recession that started before President Obama was in office. Do you remember the Bush administration and how much uncertainty we had then?
I’m not happy with President Obama for many reasons. But I think he’s made a good play of the bad hand he was dealt — with no cooperation from Congressional Republicans, by the way.
Good luck and good trades.
Many things you are saying are total lies. The way unemployment is reported has changed. I am sorry I purchased a product from Uncommon Wisdom recently, as I figured you folks were sharing the truth, not propaganda.
How can what Obama and the Feds are doing help the dollar in the long run?
We have a fiscal disaster looming and your misinforming the public is not helpful. The middle class is being decimated by current policy, not helped. Bankers and financials have been bailed out and crony capitalism is alive and well. Whose side are you on? The money changers or the taxpayer?
Hi, Rick
Thanks for writing in. I did not address the dollar — that’s a separate issue. But if you think the dollar is going down (and I won’t argue against you) then stocks should go higher, simply because they’re priced in dollars. I would be happy to see prosecutions on Wall Street, and I’m immensely disappointed with the Obama administration over this. It’s due to the huge influence of big money into politics, and we can thank the supreme court for that. I don’t think Romney will do anything to prosecute Wall Street miscreants or get big money out of politics. I agree that policies could be changed to help the Middle Class. I do not believe that Mitt Romney will do anything to help the Middle Class, as he’s the king of shipping jobs to China. But you can believe what you want. Good luck and good trades.
Dear Sean,
With all due respect I have to wonder how you come to the conclude that an Obama reelection will lead to a boom in our economy. Let’s go point by point:
1. Under Obama the stock market is on a tear. Sure it is, but let’s look at the metrics driving this current bull run:
a. Bernanke has flooded the financials and a host of other businesses here and abroad with trillions – that’s trillions with a capital T.
b. Bernanke has artificially reduced interest rates to near zero.
c. There are very few retail traders in the market. Volume is at historically low levels
d. Corporate earnings have been juiced by trimming employees, not by sales
2. The housing market is being driven by several artificial factors:
a. Banks are loaded with forclosed properties.
b. Many homeowners are underwater on their mortgages and cannot refinance
c. Foreign money is pouring into American properties because Europe is folding
3. The Job market. Sean, are you for real. The unemployment rate is improving only because people are leaving the market in desperation, not because jobs are being created. Furthermore, many good paying manufacturing jobs have been replaced with low paying service jobs. Hardly cause for celebration.
Finally, have you utterly no idea what the consequence of the 4 years of Trillion dollar plus deficits is going to mean for this economy.
Please Sean, go talk to Martin Weiss and get your head screwed on right.
Hi, Ted
You make some good points. Let me address them.
Ben Bernanke is printing money. That’s true. If he continues as Fed Chairman in an Obama second term, then he would likely continue to print money. In which case, you might want to buy select stocks.
The lack of retail traders is worrisome, but I don’t see how electing Romney will change that. Since the lack of volume hasn’t hurt stocks in Obama’s first time, I don’t think it will in a second term.
LIkewise, corporations are boosting profits by trimming employees, banks do have a lot of foreclosed properties and foreign money is choosing America over Europe. Again, I don’t see how these are arguments against stocks going higher in Obama’s second term, if he has one. As for the job market, it is showing some signs of improvement — not enough to make you or me happy, but the trend is in the data. If you think the data is rigged, that’s up to you. But the same agency published jobs data in the Bush administration, so I don’t think it’s a liberal conspiracy.
Now your final point — the budget deficit. It is big and it is scary. Did you know that for fiscal year 2012…
http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43656
“The CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit for the year was about $1.1 trillion, approximately $200 billion lower than the shortfall recorded in 2011. The 2012 deficit was equal to 7.0 percent of gross domestic product, CBO estimates, down from 8.7 percent in 2011, 9.0 percent in 2010, and 10.1 percent in 2009″
So Obama is bringing the budget deficit down, too. Funny how Fox News never tells you that, eh? Anyway, you brought up some great points. Please write in again. best wishes, Sean.
In addition to what I stated above artificially low interest rates punish savers and reward speculators. That creates an unfair advantage to the bankers who can hold on to the cash they were borrowing from the FED and get a marginal interest rate at zero risk. This is not stimulative.
Exactly why is it fair, or morally right, to bail out homeowners or corporations that have acted irresponsibly. Your whole comment makes little sense to a purveyor of Austrian Economics.
Those who are of the Keynsian Ponzi-Scheme philosophy will love it though.
I am sorry to tell you this, but as we continue down the road of trillion dollar deficits someone will eventually pay the piper and it shouldn’t be those who acted responsibly having their wealth destroyed by insane politicians diluting the value of our currency via inflation, trade imbalance, debt spending, and money printing. These are all symptoms of why many Americans are afraid to invest right now. I have found polar opposite opinions presented by many of your peers at Uncommon Wisdom. You can’t play both sides and remain credible.
I hope you have the courage not to censor my comment. I am just an average patriotic investor who wishes there was a level and moral playing field.
Hi, again, Rick. Another insightful comment! See my previous comment on how the deficit (not the debt) went down last year. http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43656
Funny, eh? Try to separate your emotions from your investing. best wishes, Sean.
Sean,
You have got to be kidding; I didn’t realize that you are part of the Obama Marxist World Government Movement.
Everything positive that is going on is only because of our current ‘Government Funded Economy’ and certainly not sustainable with Trillion Dollar Annual Deficits. If this continues it is highly probably that our currency will collapse or at the least the price of oil will soar to the point of driving us into recession.
Obama’s only plan is for the redistribution of our wealth here and in the rest of the world and the establishment of World Government, run by the UN. To do that he must raise taxes that will slow the economy. The only lasting way to revive the economy is to bring back ‘Private Sector’ Jobs and I don’t see any ‘real’ plans to do that. Hope and Change is not a Strategy!
WHAT A BUNCH OF LEFT WING PROPAGANDA–THERE ARE LESS PEOPLE WORKING THAN THE LAST 30 YEARS–HOUSING IS BARELY MOVING COMPARED TO ANY OTHER PERIOD IN OUR HISTORY AND UNHEARD OF HISTORICALLY LOW INTEREST RATES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT–I AM VERY DISAPPOINTED IN SEAN BRODERICK AND WEISS RESEARCH FOR ENDORSING SUCH A ONE SIDED POINT OF VIEW. THIS ARTICLE HAS NO TRUE BENEFIT TO ANY INVESTOR.
Hi David,
We are presenting the “What would happen if Romney wins?” point of view on Tuesdays, authored by Tony Sagami. Sean is taking the “What would happen if Obama wins?” point of view on Tuesdays. These are not designed to be candidate endorsements but, rather, the silver lining if one guy or the other gets into office.
You can see Tony’s video from this week here:
http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/3-changes-for-day-one-of-a-romney-presidency-15145?uwd
There are big opportunities that present themselves for investors specifically because of who wins. Sean and Tony are striving to show you how you can benefit from either outcome.
Sean —- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics website shows that the unemployment rate for August was approximately 12%, dropping to 11% in Sept. These stats include the working age people who are able to work and “want to work now”, but did not take “specific” (undefined) steps to get a job within the prior 30 days. The popularly reported unemployment rate (i.e. current 7.8%) excludes these people and thus seems to not be relevant to any serious economic analysis. The true unemployment rate, coupled with the GDP growth rate, which appears to be trending down over the last several years, does not bode well for your implied conclusion that housing starts and car purchases will continue to rise in the near future. Now corporate net earnings seem to be trending down. These factors weigh heavily against your optimism for the next 4 years, especially when one takes into consideration the Fed’s aggressive low interest rate policy. Bernanke’s desire to throw in the towell and head for the back door is, itself, a little disquieting.
Barry, you make great points. And what if Bernanke quits? That’s your best point of all. We are hearing that rumor. I think that could really shake a market that is addicted to free money. On the other hand, the Fed may pursue the course he’s already laid out. Best wishes, Sean.
What if Romney wins?
Obama’s leadership? Economy’s steady progress? What planet are you from? He has continually lead from behind. Our economy hangs by a thread thanks to his unbelievable ignorance of the fact that our citizens are not milk cows to fiannce his pie in the sky socialist agenda that has never worked in any other country in the history of the world and will not work here. Borrowing 45% of all the money we spend is not leadership. Does the wrod bankrupt mean anything to you?
Before getting too excite:
- Check where those auto were, big increase in overseas sales if I recall
- Housing, big part is in multi residence not SF so building supplies will be affected differently
- Labor’ check out total payroll dollars, less noticeable increase
Still very shaky as I see things
I have lost all faith in your judgement because you have accepted without challenge the fraudulent statics you quote. We are in our current sad economic situation because of Obama`s ” leadership” , not finding our way out of it because of it. His short term market manipulations can`t make a dent in the long deep decline his policies encouraged.
Somehow, I must learn to live with your disappointment, Alvaro. Fare thee well. Sean
Sean,
Look at the extended financing term(s) VW 72 months … others up to
84 months….this too is a signal as to how “broken” the economy remains.
Joan
Sean,
I usually pay positive attention to your opinions. In this case, no. I’m trying to think what other poisons leave you feeling good while you’re dying? Maybe freezing to death.
LOL! Peter, I appreciate the humor, even if you don’t agree with me. Remember, you don’t have to like a politician to make money off of him. best wishes, Sean.
Sean – I would appreciate if you would gather more balanced information, rethink these comments and then amend. I know you are better than this. So disappointing to see your pro democratic misrepresentations without a view of the larger picture and some indisputable truths – many listed in other replies here.
Bottom line: the debt is / will ruin America and Obama will continue this path.
Hi, Diana. if truths are so “indisputable,” why are in such dispute? Something to think about. Good luck in the markets, Sean.
The way I see it, with an Obama win, we had better buy stock in ConAgra because food costs will go through the roof and there could be riots in the streets from hungry people. Where have you been for 4 years?
Gene, are you blaming the drought on Obama, too? That’s a new one. Or are you saying that the value of the US dollar will plummet, thus driving food prices up? That’s more arguable. In response, I would say that while the US dollar is probably in a longer-term downtrend, it doesn’t look ready to collapse anytime soon. As for CAG, it looks a little pricey here. I’d wait for a pullback to the 50-day moving average. You might get one unless — and I know people hate this when I say this — stocks take off. best, Sean
Of course everyone knows that Obama is a favorite SON of Wall Street. Obviously They and Bernanake
are running the Economy Show. Everybody forgets that Wall Street is not a complete Picture, and they
overlook that Employment is the basis of everything within a Economy. Remember Sean, Interest is very very low and inflation is very high…………WHAT IS REALLY OUT THERE, NOT THE “COOKED” NUMBERS THE
Obama Administratin feeds the Media…….I would warn that Interest vs Inflation is a comparison to watch…..
What happens when common consumer goods overtake consumer wages? Obama just doesn’t know what to
do, or how, and Wall Street is not the answer for the Economy as a whole. JOBS is the only answer……..
One reason some auto sales are up, particularly GM, i because of Federal Government purchases. Duh! I hardl have confidence in any numbers that have come out of Washington during this Pesident’s term. Most are disproven anywhere from a week to a month later.