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Sorry, Draghi, it ain’t going to work …

Larry Edelson | September 10, 2012

Larry Edelson

I fail to see the merit in Mario Draghi’s approach to the euro crisis. Buying “unlimited amounts” of bonds from indebted sovereign euro countries and then “sterilizing” the printed money is simply not going to work.

First, Germany’s Bundesbank, by far the most powerful national central bank in the euro zone, is not squarely behind the deal. That’s not a good sign.

Just hours after Draghi announced the plan, Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble also jumped into the fray, warning that he stood against the European Central Bank’s (ECB) bond-buying plan.

Second, Draghi plans on sterilizing the money printed by his bond-buying. That means the ECB will issue its own debt to mop up the money it’s printed. So there will be no net increase in the monetary base, which is dis-inflationary … at a time when precisely the opposite is needed, a dose of inflation.

Third, the sterilization will cause even more problems. The only countries that can afford to buy ECB bonds to mop up excess money printing are the rich euro-zone countries, mainly Germany and France.

Think that through. It means the bonds the ECB does buy, from failing sovereign nations, will put money in their coffers … while the bonds the ECB issues will take money out of the coffers of the richer nations.

Do you think Germany and France will like to see their liquidity tightened while their suffering neighbors get all the benefits? I don’t think so!

Fourth, by driving down short-term yields on sovereign bonds in heavily-indebted and busted euro-zone countries, the ECB will effectively shorten those countries’ debt maturities.

With those busted countries falling deeper and deeper into a depression, that will merely serve to make their debt loads worse in the longer run, because debt will have to be rolled over more frequently.

Fifth, the indebted nations of Europe that will get the aid will have to get their fiscal houses in order by complying with strict policies put out by the ECB. If they don’t, then the ECB backs away from buying and supporting their bonds.

Guess what? The ECB-imposed austerity measures will merely serve to make the debt crisis worse. And that’s assuming countries like Spain, Italy, Portugal, etc. will be able to comply with strict austerity measures in the first place.

That’s highly unlikely. Just look at how Greece has gone down the tubes with austerity measures that, in turn, forced it to go hat-in-hand time after time for more bailouts.

Put another way, if Spain, Italy, Greece etc. can’t comply, they lose the ECB backing. And if they do comply, their economies simply crater more.

In short, there is no way Draghi’s plan is going to work. The markets, most of which have rallied sharply on the news, are headed for one of the biggest disappointments I’ve ever seen. The gap between hope and reality has never been wider.

I see more trouble ahead, too. This Wednesday, Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court will decide the legitimacy of the European Stability Mechanism, the funding vehicle for bailout money. There’s a chance it will decide against it, which would put Draghi’s plan in jeopardy.

In addition, our Fed meets this Thursday and the majority of investors and traders are expecting Ben Bernanke to announce another round of money-printing.

They’re going to be sadly disappointed. Bernanke will do no such thing. While he will give the usual rhetoric that the Fed stands ready to print, and perhaps may give a few more clues about it, I strongly believe that the Fed will not initiate any money-printing until after the elections, at the earliest, and more likely, not until early 2013.

Bottom line: I don’t like what I’m seeing in the markets. It’s not just my gut, not just my interpretation of the news or fundamentals either.

  While the S&P has marched to a new recovery high, it remains largely unconfirmed by the advance/decline ratio, by volume, and by the Dow Transports.

  While gold has rallied to just above $1,700, it has thus far failed to take out my system resistance at the $1,727 level, let alone monthly resistance at $1,740 to $1,750.

  While silver has exploded higher too, it has also failed to take out monthly resistance at the $34 level.

Meanwhile, the euro remains below monthly resistance at the 1.28 level and the dollar is holding monthly support at the 80 level in the nearby Dollar Index futures. Crude oil has failed to get above important resistance at the $100 mark.

I see a giant trap about to slam shut. A lot of investors are going to get hurt. Don’t be one of them.

Until next time …

Best wishes,

Larry

P.S. From ECB meetings to the upcoming Fed meeting to the never-ending saga of European sovereign-debt problems, September is filled with uncertainty. But it’s also filled to the brim with opportunity. And in my Real Wealth Report, I help you seize the profit potential from the opportunities these events create. Activate your risk-free trial subscription by simply clicking here now!

Larry Edelson has over 34 years of investing experience with a focus in the precious metals and natural resources markets. His Real Wealth Report (a monthly publication) and Power Portfolio provide a continuing education on natural resource investments, with recommendations aiming for both profit and risk management.

For more information on Real Wealth Report, click here.
For more information on Power Portfolio, click here.

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{ 59 comments… read them below or add one }

King Ralph Monday, September 10, 2012 at 9:00 am

When did you write this? Gold is already past your system resistance of 1727 as it closed at 1737.60 on Friday.

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Kevin Monday, September 10, 2012 at 9:53 am

I don’t understand. God DID take out your 1727 resistance level with a weekly close Friday just below 1740.

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Kevin Monday, September 10, 2012 at 9:55 am

I’m sorry, but you also did not mention that ZSL and DLL both stopped out at your designated levels. What should we do now about them? Thank you.

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Paul Brezicki Monday, September 10, 2012 at 10:15 am

Larry,
It appears to me that your breakout targets are shifting. In your weekly update of August 27, you said a USD Friday close under 80.65 would negate the uptrend. The close on 9/7/12 was 80.17, but today you say support is actually at 80. Likewise, two weeks ago, you said a gold close above 1727.70 would signal the next leg of the uptrend. Gold closed at 1740.50 on Friday, but today you say it has failed to take out resistance at 1727, as well as monthly resistance at 1740-1750. Your comments on silver re similar: breakout signal was 30.70, Friday’s close was around 33.70, new monthly resistance is 34. If I had followed your advice of 8/27/12, I would currently be short the USD and long the precious metals. Can you please explain?

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jrj90620 Monday, September 10, 2012 at 10:21 am

Good to see that you’re staying with your long term forcasts.So many investment “experts” will change, like politicians, to whatever the crowd wants to hear.

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Peter Friday, September 14, 2012 at 9:10 am

yes, it’s GOOD to stay with the long-term forecast …like Dow to 9000 and gold to under $ 1450 and silver to $ 19 as it was written Oct. 10 2011

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id Friday, September 14, 2012 at 12:49 pm

Yes indeed it’s good to see that he sticks with his long-term forcast…Dow to 9000 …gold to $ 1450 or lower and silver to $ 19 …see his report from Oct. 10 2011

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david wilkinson Monday, September 10, 2012 at 10:49 am

Love your analysis, Larry!.
Today’s article just screamed the underlying truth of an old quote from the ‘Arch Bankster’ of the modern era, Mayer Rothschild –
“Give me control of a nation’s [debt-based] money and I care not who makes her laws.” – Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744 – 1812).

I would also offer for your reader’s contemplation this self-incriminating quote by a former Governor of the Bank of England:-
“Banking was conceived in iniquity, and was born in sin. The Bankers own the Earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create deposits, and with the flick of the pen, they will create enough deposits, to buy it back again. However, take it away from them, and all the great fortunes like mine will disappear, and they ought to disappear, for this would be a happier and better world to live in. But if you wish to remain the slaves of Bankers, and pay the cost of your own slavery, let them continue to create deposits.” – Sir Josiah Stamp (Governor of the Bank of England in the 1920s, the second richest man in Britain)”.

Bet regards,
David

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ewy Monday, September 10, 2012 at 11:36 am

This guy keeps changeing the goalposts he said this less than a month ago

For one thing, though gold seems to be pressing higher and could move even higher in the short term — as I recently pointed out — gold would have to close above $1,727.70 to prove me wrong and turn the short- and intermediate-term trends back to bullish.

I see very little chance of that happening and, instead, I sense that gold is about to inflict a lot of damage on the majority of investors and stage a stunning collapse.

Silver is about to do the same. While it could press a bit higher, silver would have to close above $30.71 to reverse the short- and intermediate-term trends. Short of that, silver will pummel a lot of the investors who are now venturing in to buy “the devil’s metal.”

Both gold and silver have exceeded his earlier targets and in my view are in new bull markets.

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Frank rirvine Tuesday, September 11, 2012 at 11:25 am

This is a ploy, It’s a sucker trap the UN and it new world order puppets are cranking the markets up to enhance the Obama camps chances of winning the election in 50 odd days time. In December 2013 the Fed contract with the US government compliments of Roosevelt expires. They will stop at nothing to regain control of the international reserve currency regardless of whether it;s in USA, Timbuktoo or China. They control the UN and are determined to have their puppets win the US election so they can trash the US economy into deeper debt. Declare a state of emergency and take control. This is no fantasy, Americans have provrn they will put up with anything government does regardless of how many violations of the constitution Obama violates, nothing happens. Homeland security has ordered millions of rounds of military ammunition, it’s an internal security force. Who do they intend killing??? smell the stench

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bert Tuesday, September 11, 2012 at 1:09 pm

just put your stops in and you will make a killing.

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JM Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 4:21 pm

It’s not million of rounds of ammunition, it’s billions of rounds of ammunition. Now the fact that it was hollow-point ammunition that is illeagl to use in military operations overseas and way more expensive than practice ammunition, you have some idea of the thinking of some in our government.

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manuel camara Monday, September 10, 2012 at 12:13 pm

I have paid my yearly dues and are not receiving any emails from Larry Edelson. Please check your files and send me any emails/videos/information that I missed after July 27, 2012.

Best Regards,
Manuel Camara

Reply

Dawn Tuesday, September 11, 2012 at 10:36 am

Hi Manuel! I am sending your note over to Customer Care and someone will be in touch with you soon about your membership!

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joseph yasinski Monday, September 10, 2012 at 12:47 pm

To real wealth report,
your target of 1727 was surpassed on Friday as gold is now trading at 1736. how much longer should I hold my my position in gll as it continues to prevent profits in gold”s rise.

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Dom Monday, September 10, 2012 at 12:55 pm

Wow! Ya gotta have balls of steel to be shorting silver (recent intraday peak $33.95) and gold at this point.
However, I do think Larry’s analysis is dead on. The question is how long will it take to break down?

As Larry wisely points out; the Fed is skittish about pre-election QE.
If politics didn’t matter, there has already been plenty of excuses to go for QE again. And by the way, with an AWOL congress, that is the only thing keeping the USA from tanking.

Republicans have supported a policy of crashing the recovery as a re-election tactic, to try to scare their way back into power. They have sabotaged legitimate fiscal support and scream foul every time Ben supports the US economy. They will have another swing at the bat after the election. Oh Gawd!
When the big “O” is re-elected and retains the senate, I could see the Republican house double down in their stubborn determination to transfer blame to the Dem’s. Not that Dem’s have been saints, mind you! So I gotta wonder if the coming “fiscal cliff” congressional temper-tantrum is the trigger we are waiting for?

Europe is a bit trickier. The German court is likely to approve Dragi’s move, but watch the fine print. Hat tip to Larry, his comment “Wolfgang opposed bond buying”, hours after Dragi made headlines was not well covered in the financial press. I wonder if the fine print of the German court ruling will also be overlooked? Probably not by Larry!

Europe’s leaders have consistently done too little, too late. The insanity of enforcing austerity on a shrinking economy will fail to stabilize anything. A classic debt trap.

So the question really is how long will the music keep playing?
That is, how long will the market keep from recognizing the fundamental needed deleveraging?
When deleveraging comes, how do you think gold will perform? Is the solution a deflationary spiral first or hyper-inflation, currency collapse, then deflation? This could take a while, or not.

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DOM Wednesday, September 12, 2012 at 3:20 pm

European Central Banks’ Dragi has successfully nudged the European nation’s politicians toward his stated goal of a fiscal, financial, economic and political union, despite the politically isolated Bundesbank’s Jens Weidmann’s temper-tantrums. Well played Dragi!

The Bundesbanks ruling does have some conditions; however, going back to the German politicians for future funding is a no brainer to pass. It is like daring a politician who has a gun pointed to his head to pull the trigger. Not gonna happen.
You may quibble that the “unlimited” funding has not been legislated or funded YET, but never underestimate the elite’s ability to juggle the “democratic” system into compliance, eventually. Might be a bit of a roller coaster ride, but hey, what has the recent past been like?

As for this course being inflationary well; inflation is caused by velocity of money, not quantity. Tried to get a loan lately? In the near term the EU is projected to continue to shrink its collective GDP. This is the definition of a deflationary environment.

When Larry says its “not going to work” he is correct about the long term.
However, the “independent” German Central Bank has lost political support.
Larry correctly prescribes a dose of inflation. However, the “single mandate (ie; no inflation)” ECB is stuck in the wrong economic model. They are not listening.
The marvel of sterilization is that while “it will cause even more problems”, not this year.
Which bring us to Larry’s forth point. Again they have shamelessly kicked the can down the road.
Larry’s final point, austerity will “make the debt crisis worse” is also dead on.
However, It will set up crisis conditions to implement Dragi’s goals.

So does gold have to come down? Is that “giant trap” still on a hair trigger?
There seems to be some suspicion that all this money manipulation may somehow destroy the “store of value” function of money. Go figure.

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David X Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:16 pm

Draughi announced nothing new! Basically, he sad he would buy bonds of countries that asked for a bailout from the ESM and agreed to comply with the austerity measures that come along with it and to essentially give of sovereignty on fiscal policy. More ridiculous is the fact that the ESM is backed by the very countries that need a bailout (Italy and Spain) – i.e. they’re providing 20-30% of the funds to bail themselves out. The only thing Draughi did was add the word (unlimited) to the deal, notwithstanding that the ESM only has about 100b to lend (Greece has already burned through twice that). Who will lend to the ESM? With unemployment in double digits on both Spain and Italy, who will sign onto austerity?

As for the Fed, the main reason they won’t do QE3 in an election year is the price of gasoline creeping up already. If they announced QE3, we would have $4 gas and $1,800 gold before the election.

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tangibellol Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:42 pm

Every time gold and silver explode up, Larry adjusts his upper limit on them higher and higher. Way to go Sherlock.

Larry raises his resistance levels each time he writes articles, while gold and silver go up and up:

While gold has rallied to just above $1,700, it has thus far failed to take out my system resistance at the $1,727 level, let alone monthly resistance at $1,740 to $1,750.

While silver has exploded higher too, it has also failed to take out monthly resistance at the $34 level.

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FS Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:45 pm

As long as the nefarious Cabal of banksters is in power (and they still are) you will see any and every attempt imaginable to defraud you of your money in every possible way.

If they can lure enough investors in, they will not hesitate to make the move and steal the money.

Paper investments are increasingly questionable (stocks, bonds, debentures, ETFs, derivatives, etc.) and soon ALL will become worth no more than the paper they are written on.

We would advise NOT buying any silver or gold PAPER investments at this time. They are letting it rise somewhat to lure more in for now. Wait, wait, wait. You’ll be glad you did.

And, this could happen quite suddenly, catching most persons unaware.

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Millard Longman Monday, September 10, 2012 at 2:16 pm

Hi Larry,

The December gold futures closed at 1740.50 on Friday, September 7, 2012.

And according to Kitco, spot gold closed at 1735.50 on Friday.

What price data on gold did not close above 1727?

Millard

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tom d Monday, September 10, 2012 at 2:19 pm

While gold has rallied to just above $1,700, it has thus far failed to take out my system resistance at the $1,727 level, let alone monthly resistance at $1,740 to $1,750.

the xauusd hit a high fri. @ $1740.72.

what chart (price) are you using?

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Phyllisofical Monday, September 10, 2012 at 2:28 pm

My gut tells me that Larry is right. He truly does embody “uncommon wisdom” and I really trust his advice.

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Elliott Brown Monday, September 10, 2012 at 4:32 pm

I don’t understand which gold price you use in your newsletter. You said gold would have to close above 1727 to signal a change in direction, but it closed over 1735 on Friday. Please help me understand what I should be looking at.

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Neil Monday, September 10, 2012 at 5:06 pm

Larry,
I really like reading about your cycle work & forecasts. I’m glad you don’t feel compelled to have us invest in the markets as you must get complaints from itchy subscribers. I respect that you stay true to your word. I’ll gladly hold cash until you give the green light.

Looks like the markets want to drag in every sucker…ugh..er.. investor out there.

FYI, I never received an e-mail notification about the RWR September briefing being online. I just ran across it accidentally when looking at the Weiss Research Issues website. Not sure if other subscribers experienced this as well.

Keep it up Larry !

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da man Monday, September 10, 2012 at 6:34 pm

but they have taken out all your stops and caused your clients considerable continuing losses..after loss…after loss……

You system nees to be re-tooled…..

We’ll have a typical, cyclical September back-to-college-football dolddrums…hardly anything devastating…

then you will continue to be blown away….

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antonio Monday, September 10, 2012 at 10:07 pm

Hello Larry,
‘
Good job at staying the course with your convictions on gold and silver. The way I understand your position is that you expect them both to go a lot lower before they start their next bull run. I agree with you, but I am still maintaining a core holding, just in case we are both wrong. I also agree with you that the FED will not announce a new printing program. First, they do not need to announce anything and can pretty much do what ever they want. Second, they can not be seen as influencing the election. And third, I think they fully realize that the law of diminishing returns applies and that all they would get is a temporary bump in the market. Finally, I think they realize that they get the same bump by talk rather than action. We certainly live in interesting times.

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Peter Wednesday, September 12, 2012 at 12:36 am

You know what’s the real sad part about this , re: gol;d / silver ? Not many ” market workers ” realize that a new bull market for gold/silver started somewhere around April 2012.
But that’s only for advanced people to know .
Sweet dreams of silver at $ 23 …or gold at $ 1450 or even lower.
Can we go lower from here …from $ 1730′s ? Of course we can but NO $ 1450 in sight …NONE !!!
Check gold for every years ending – since 2002 – compare to the prior yr. ending … NEVER lower …always higher…always

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antonio Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 8:08 pm

Thanks for your comment Peter. I sure guessed wrong about the FED making an announcement. I still hold to my belief that you have to hold a core gold/silver position even if you hope to get more at a lower price. The lower price may or may not occur and you sure want to be on the train when it leaves the station. The old saying was to not get thrown off the gold bull. Weak hands are very vulnerable to a sell off. I am not sure when Larry is just going to admit that he was wrong and reverse his stand. I am sure that he is feeling distressed somewhat because his models told him one thing and reality is telling him another.

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PMinvestor Monday, September 10, 2012 at 11:14 pm

Larry,
Your “system resistance” has been taken out. Gold (as I write this on 9/10/2012) is trading at $1,731.20. It is headed much higher than this and is not looking back. It doesn’t look like your “wait for my signal to back up the truck” scenario is going to happen.

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Peter Monday, September 10, 2012 at 11:35 pm

Too bad, isn’t ? ” Gold has FAILED to take out MY ( Larry’s ) system resistance @ $ 1727 ( gold Sept. 10 = $ 1724 ….$ 1745 high Friday ) …silver also FAILED to take out the monthly ( ?) resistance @ $ 34 ” – silver at $ 33.16 low for Sept.10 – …..Gold / Silver have their own idea and don’t give a hoot what some people want to see .. daily , weekly or monthly . $ 26 for silver was too high …so you better wait , right ? Gold at $ 1530 was too high … so you better wait , right ? Makes all sense ?

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Jack Worthington Tuesday, September 11, 2012 at 12:37 am

I disagree with the suggestion that a “dose of inflation” is needed. This is why we are in the doot pile. A little bit of thievery and lying and pretty soon the truth is forgotten and ethics and morality are toast. Treating symptoms of a problem will not cure the cancer/disease and a “dose of inflation” is not what an “addict” needs.

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louis beck Tuesday, September 11, 2012 at 9:33 am

Gold had smashed through the resistance numbers you put in this letter 3 days before you sent it out and has held above your numbers. Euro has traded through 1.28 though I am not sure if it has “closed” there since I don’t really know when close happens on forex. Seems like an update, flash report, something is in order, especially for your paying clients.

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FS Tuesday, September 11, 2012 at 3:07 pm

Every small investor IS being set up now, as they have been in the past, for a major heist. By whom you ask?

The controllers and manipulators of silver, gold, and the markets in stocks and bonds are setting up more major heists. They are unprincipled, unscrupulous, greedy, parasites—which should be abundantly clear by now.

ALL PAPER INVESTMENTS will eventually reach zero value. They are currently milking thousands of investors holding short positions on the markets and the metals, which continue to erode by the day (the ETF shorts), stealing your money and placing it into the pockets of the manipulators.

Don’t be fooled. If you buy shorts you will lose, as they allow tiny bump ups in the markets day by day to erode those positions and steal your money. Short ETFs are a scam—-big time. They were created by the same parasites that have been stealing through derivatives and mortgages by the trillions,

WAKE UP TO WHO REALLY RUNS THE MARKETS! These are not honest people folks. They are parasites, bent on taking ALL your money—–yes, every penny of it —–for themselves.

Don’t buy or sell gold and silver just now. Definitely get rid of any paper investments that you can. Those will become worthless. Place your funds in hard assets—homes, food, commodities, necessities.

Get ready for some critical events before year’s end.

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Paul Tuesday, September 11, 2012 at 4:49 pm

I can’t understand how Larry can have such good fundamental analysis with the insight to go long (this is why I read him) yet ignore that analysis and put all his faith in squiggly charts that convince him to go short. Betting against a bull market is a mistake. The price targets have been proved wrong again and again.

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Marco Tuesday, September 11, 2012 at 7:48 pm

Many of you still do not understand that Larry types these reports on the Thursday and then posts them on Monday. So by the time you are getting the information, the markets have approximately 3 days of being opened. If you all will remember this then all the posts about the changes in price would not be needed. This letter is real time only for the time Larry wrote it. You still have to do your own due diligence! Remember it is still your money even if you subscribe to someone for information, and your choice whether you will grow it or loose it. When you pay for a ticket to NY the plane does not carry you to your hotel room or pay for the hotel room. You plan the next move after leaving the airport. Well do the same with the information you receive, look at the charts, read the headlines and make your decision. Larry is certainly not god or pretending to be a god. Lol. Your comments help him as much as his information helps you.

P.S. If you have physical just be right and sit tight. When the price slips buy the dips! There is a long run for a meager horse. And soon the cartel will be that horse that will drop dead when the race is over! Nothing is manipulated forever and gold or silver has never been worthless!

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Jim Granacher Wednesday, September 12, 2012 at 9:21 am

If Monty’s comments from his Sep 12 article are correct what does this mean for the yuan going forward and what should we be looking for in short and intermediate term?

To me, this is important information, as it reveals a few things:
1. We can expect Chinese GDP and manufacturing data to be supported, which puts a floor under commodities like grains and metals.
2. Slowing Chinese investment spending and their concentration on growing the domestic consumption will lead to slowing capital inflows and, therefore, a weaker currency.
3. Artificially keeping demand for goods higher by warehousing them, combined with a weaker currency, points to inflation. This means that they will be hard-pressed to cut interest rates too fast to stoke economic growth. This is not a positive for the Chinese stock market.

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FS Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 4:23 am

I can smell it coming. Beverly Hills had two moderate earthquakes last week that occurred at the spot where two huge long fault lines intersect.

Now the news says hundreds of local residents called police and 911 to report a pervasive stench in the air over a three county area, and officials are claiming ignorance as to its cause.

Yes, I can smell it coming. “It ain’t gonna be pretty!” as they say. Costa Rica had a 7.6 a few days ago, and the quakes move around the Pacific Ring of Fire in a consecutive fashion.

Are any of you investing in disaster supplies?

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D Taylor Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 1:45 pm

Well Larry, what’s your answer on the Gold issue and your charts just destroyed by the Fed which your charts don’t factor in?

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D Taylor Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 1:47 pm

BTW, I intended to buy much more gold bullion at 1500 but you told me to keep waiting. I also intended to load up even more than I have with mining stocks but you kept me waiting and now look where we are. Time to eat some crow and help us

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Heidi Friday, September 14, 2012 at 9:21 am

To D.Taylor….yes, Larry said Oct. 10 2011 …” EVERYTHING will be lower ” but the opposite happened and many people still say : : ” THANK YOU Larry to sticking to your guns ” .

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Joe N Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 1:49 pm

Thursday 1:00 pm . Sorry, Larry ! Your latest prediction was wrong, Bernanke just launched QE3 .

Hold on, don’t give up hope ! Your “short-term” predictions “huge plunge of SLV” (RWR#99), “oil below $70″ (RWR#100) will come true … next year perhaps.

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Mount Teide Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 1:59 pm

Gold above $1770 following announcement of QE3.

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jason Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 2:12 pm

Good morning Larry, I have been reading you for years now and respect your opinions on markets. I know that nobody is always right and it is on me what I decide to do. I am just curious to see what your thoughts are now that Gold is trading at 1768 and silver at 34.70? Is it off to the races now that all your numbers are broke? Thanks for the update!

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Joe Ng Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 2:36 pm

Larry,

QE3 is now a reality (not waiting until after the election), does it signal the end of the so-called “dis-inflation”, or is dis-inflation never exists, just a baloney concept ? With the new money rushing in, is REAL inflation with us from now on ?. If so, is it the begining of a new bullish market of stocks ? Thank you .

Joe, a RWR client

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hank Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 5:33 pm

Whelp, this sure didn’t pan out. QE3 has begun and gold and silver are shooting higher.

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FS Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 6:30 pm

Yes, lure more cattle into the pen, then SLAM the gate shut and begin the slaughter!

The Cabal of Wall Street banksters is about to do its dirtiest deed of all—-stage a massive ploy to entrap as many investors as it can and then steal all their money—bankrupting many.

Yes, it will happen. They won’t go down without trying to rip us all off in a big way—the biggest way they can muster. They are trying to totally destroy the U.S. middle class, reduce us all to serf status, and then take what little we have left.

Vermin and parasites are the only way I can describe the elite that manipulate the markets.

THEY SELL YOU A PIECE OF PAPER, AND YOU GIVE THEM REAL MONEY. Very clever. Then they say that worthless piece of paper has “lost value” so they can’t pay you back. That is grand theft!

Get out of the trap while you still can. Put your funds in HARD assets, no paper!!!! The time is getting closer. All paper will become worthless—–good for use only in the toilet.

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Wes Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 7:12 pm

Just as the Fed used Morgan Stanley to prop up credit through the credit default swaps (CDSs) market as well as enlisting JP Morgan to suppress the price of PMs, it’s most likely that the Fed has buoyed stocks through the purchase of S&P futures via the NY Fed’s Exchange Stability Fund (ESF).

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Heidi Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 8:48 pm

Read this …

http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/more-gains-coming-here%e2%80%99s-why-13091

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Thomas D.-G. Monday, September 17, 2012 at 3:20 pm

I agree with your view that Mr. Edelson’s models are already having become fulfilled where silver went below $24 earlier this year and now gold is rising above $1760, today, Sept. 17th, 2012.
Now I quote Larry below from the same article as your link above:

“More GAINS coming. Here’s why …”
Larry Edelson | October 10, 2011
“AS FOR GOLD AND SILVER: Their declines are NOT over yet either!”

“I see gold falling to below $1,525 — down to as low as $1,432. If that level gives way at any time, gold could fall all the way to the $1,100 level.”

“I also expect silver to fall at least to the $23 to $25 level. Believe it or not, if silver breaks $23 at any time, it should fall as low as $19.”

“I also have not recommended the selling of any of long-term core gold positions. As painful as it might be to hold on to profitable gold positions as gold pulls back, exiting them makes no sense to me.”

“It is far better to keep the long term in focus, and add to your core metals holdings when the dust of this correction settles. Don’t worry, I will alert you when that time comes!”

“If, on the other hand, you did hedge any of your core gold holdings, my recommendation is to hold your hedge until:

A. I give you the all clear signal that the metals have bottomed.”

“Or …”

“B. I’m proven wrong and gold closes back above $1,890 on a Friday closing basis.”

“Until that happens, gold and silver remain vulnerable to sharp new lows during this corrective, disinflationary phase.”

“I expect virtually the entire commodity complex to get hit heading into the end of this year and into 2012, including base metals, soft commodities, and grains.”

“From a long-term perspective, this pullback will prove to be resoundingly bullish. It will set the stage for another round of quantitative easing from the Fed and other central banks as well.”

Of course, the utmost lows for precious metals, gold and silver, were never met since the forecast-ed lows were fulfilled. Anyhow, Ben Bernanke is onto QE3 today September 2012! That is a given and it proves Larry Edelson right, in that the Europeans are miserable about their debt and it should only to force inflation upon themselves in Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, etc.

Reply

D Taylor Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 9:13 pm

Larry, where’s your answer to us missing several hundred points in Gold and missing big breakout moves in mining stocks across the board?? Perhaps you’re still thinking that Gold is going down to 1300?

Reply

Thomas D.-G. Monday, September 17, 2012 at 3:28 pm

Mr. Taylor, please remember that the month of September is the annual bull run for silver and that the month of October is the annual bull run for gold. It is the tradition of this western hemisphere for the financial sector to go into a bull run during the fourth quarter of the year, also!
My personal take on all this is that we have a great USA stock market until 2013 when the European nations begin to default and then a domino effect occurs upon our markets later in the same year or during 2014?
Praise unto the Spirit.

Reply

BEARINGDOC Friday, September 14, 2012 at 8:34 am

While this are all very interesting comments discussing the weakening dollar value, I am somewhat baffled that
investers are not going to flock to gold/silver in the 4 th quarter. Doomsdayers appear to be really chattering
over dumping paper money. So, is the consensus that silver and gold are peaked out and many are in the cross
hairs of a correction heading lower ? I am a novice at best in finance, someone please tell me how the metal
market is over priced and about to tumble……someone that has the kahoonies to have solid facts.

Reply

Tim Day Friday, September 14, 2012 at 11:05 am

When did you say the market was going to crash? Before or after the election? With this new easing, wont it continue to float?

Reply

Carlos Friday, September 14, 2012 at 5:11 pm

BEN just said he is going to print money to infinity and beyond…monetization of assets?

Reply

id Friday, September 14, 2012 at 6:59 pm

Forecast for next week….

everything will collapse …trust me !

Reply

J. Valenti Saturday, September 15, 2012 at 9:36 am

Larry: I have had great respect for your analyses and followed your advice. But now that gold and silver have broken out and QE3 is a reality, I don’t understand your silence. I thiink we would all be comforted by an update. Where do we go from here? Do we continue to sit and wait or follow the market and jump in? It’s time for you to speak up and give us what we’re paying for. Update! Urgent! Update! Where are you?

Reply

KGM Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 9:56 am

Larry. Your wavering at a critical point in your assessment of gold and silver is not a good sign.
” Gold would have to close above $1,727.70 to turn the short- and intermediate-term trends back to bullish.”…….. “So, keep your eyes open and stay tuned!”.
My eyes are open and I’ve stayed tuned, but I’ve seen nor heard anything from you…

Reply

Thomas D.-G. Monday, September 17, 2012 at 3:31 pm

Dear KGM, gold has hit $1766, today, Sept. 17, 2012!

Reply

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