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Read This Now …

Larry Edelson | August 16, 2010

Larry Edelson

My apologies for being so bold in the subject line. But this is one of the most important columns I’ve ever written. Why? Because today I am going to give you a major heads up on the trends I see unfolding over the next few months.

More importantly, I am also going to show you how those short-term trends are going to set the stage for the longer-term trends that you’re going to see unfold over the next few years.

First, a warning: The forecasts you’re about to read are controversial, and many will say I have lost my mind. No problem. Many have said the same about me numerous times in the past.

But the forecasts I speak of today are based entirely upon my proprietary trading models that are unlike any other in the world.

And today is not the first time my trading models have made spectacular calls. Since I developed them in 1982, they have successfully guided me and the investors that have followed me through every twist and turn in the economy and markets:

Through the 1987 stock market collapse, the ensuing bull market, the first Gulf War, the peak in the broad markets in 1999, the crash of 2000—2003, the 2007 peak in stocks, the bull market in gold right from day one, the bear market in the dollar, and more.

My systems flagged every one of those events and major trends well in advance.

I point this out not to brag, but merely to emphasize how important it is that you read on to learn what my models are saying now, and how seriously their messages should be taken.

They are not common forecasts. They are not based on linear logic, but rather, on more dynamic processes, which is what the markets themselves are. Dynamic.


So here are the forecasts and what you should be watching …

FIRST, the broad stock markets will attempt one or two more rallies over the next three weeks. The Dow may even get back to 10,700, or even nudge out a new high near 11,000.

But don’t you dare be fooled. The broad stock markets in the U.S. are now rolling over.

At a minimum, by November, we will see the Dow plunge to at least 9,000, with a high probability of falling to the 8,700 level.

But once you see the Dow Industrials below 9,000 — start preparing for another big rally in the markets, one that could last for years and eventually see the Dow Industrials more than triple by 2015, and soar to anywhere between 27,000 and 44,000.

How could that ever happen, you ask? Call me crazy. Call me nuts. But I’ve written about it before, and that kind of stock market inflation has happened in nearly every third-world and emerging economy on the planet.

The only difference is that this time, it will happen in the FIRST world, and chiefly in the U.S. No matter what the economy does.

Because very simply …

Look for the Dow to plunge this fall ... then stage a long, sustainable rally.
Look for the Dow to plunge this fall … then stage a long, sustainable rally.

SECOND, as the Dow plunges going into November, the U.S. Federal Reserve will start printing more money to inflate away the problems. No matter how much it takes. Whether it’s another one trillion, five trillion, twenty trillion, or even thirty trillion dollars.

The Fed will do whatever it believes necessary to try and turn things around.

It will stop at nothing. The Fed, in the next round of this crisis, will even resort to more extreme measures, such as supporting the U.S. bond markets — and keeping interest rates at near zero — by forcing banks to buy U.S. bonds (like the Fed did during WWII).

By reversing the existing policy of paying banks interest on reserves parked at the Fed, and penalizing the banks instead for not lending out to the economy …

By slashing reserve requirements, by restricting foreign capital outflows, and more.

All of this will be ultimately designed with one end goal in mind: To massively DEBASE the U.S. dollar.

You see, the Fed thinks — rightly or wrongly, only time will tell — that by devaluing the dollar and eventually inflating financial assets higher, that trillions of dollars of wealth will be recreated.

Hence, from that will flow new businesses, a wave of new innovation, millions of jobs being brought back, millions more new jobs being created, real estate prices appreciating once again, and more. In short, everything will be hunky-dory once again.

As I said before, whether or not the strategy works remains to be seen. I doubt it will. But that’s not my main point.

My main point is that if you fight the Fed on this, you’re going to lose your shirt.

So once you see the Dow below 9,000, start getting ready to go LONG the market, because the Fed is determined — and does have the ability — to inflate the financial markets higher, much higher.

No matter what philosophical or political bend you come from, if you want to protect your wealth and grow it, don’t fight the Fed on the next plunge in the economy and the stock markets.

THIRD, gold will soon be giving you the ultimate opportunity to buy — before it heads to way north of $2,000 an ounce. The short-term cycles in gold point down into late August, when I expect gold to fall below $1,100 an ounce. It should, however, hold the $1,000 mark.

But no matter what, thereafter, gold should explode to new record highs, most likely by the end of the year — and then, through 2011 and 2012, march to at least $2,300 an ounce.

By 2015, I expect to see gold at near $5,000 an ounce.

The driving force will NOT be inflation. That will come later, and will show up in the CPI, but not for at least another couple of years.

The driving force instead, will be the final recognition that the U.S. is broke beyond repair … that the Fed will print however many trillions of dollars it wants to paper over the mess and retain control for as long as possible …

Don't be surprised to see gold prices at near $5,000 an ounce by 2015.
Don’t be surprised to see gold prices at near $5,000 an ounce by 2015.

And that the U.S. dollar is doomed as a reserve currency.

So start preparing for all of this NOW, with the following steps. I cannot overemphasize them …

Step 1: Minimize your exposure to the stock market, right now. Get out of all stocks with the exception of core gold shares and other select natural resource, tangible asset stocks.

Later, in a few months, when the Dow falls below 9,000 — I will tell my Real Wealth Report members exactly how and what to get positioned in to capitalize on the Fed’s next aggressive moves, and the financial and tangible asset inflation we’re going to see.

Step 2: For any liquid cash you have, not earmarked for gold, keep it in safe, liquid, short-term investments such as money markets.

Or, use the strategy I’ve outlined in some of my special reports, which involves buying the iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund ETF (TIPS), but hedged by investing a third of what you place in that fund into the inverse bond fund, the Direxion Daily 10-Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (TYO).

Step 3: If you don’t use the upcoming weakness in the gold market to buy or add to positions, I think you could be making a huge mistake.

The best way to buy gold, in my opinion, is the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD). Each share represents 1/10 of an ounce of gold. When you buy this fund, it’s like buying a mutual fund, but one that holds only physical gold. Plus, you eliminate storage and shipping worries because the gold is held in trust for you.

Or, if you’d rather buy a gold stock mutual fund, consider the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX). As an alternative, look at the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX). This single investment holds 10 of the largest gold miners in the world.

No matter what you do, I urge you to stay open minded and think dynamically going forward. That means not accepting the status quo, not accepting mass hysteria, not following old models and old economic rules, and using “uncommon wisdom”. Period.

That will be the only true way to both psychologically and financially survive not just the next few months, but also the next few years.

All the best,

Larry

P.S. For ALL of my specific recommendations and precise buy and sell signals, become a member of Real Wealth Report, for a modest $99 a year. You’ll get 12 monthly hard-hitting issues packed with uncommon analysis and insights into today’s world and the great financial crisis … plus flash alerts, advance notice of special situations, and more.

It’s a value that can’t be beat. Become a member now by clicking here.


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Uncommon Wisdom (UWD) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, and Tony Sagami. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in UWD, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in UWD are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Marci Campbell, Selene Ceballo, Amber Dakar, Roberto McGrath, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Marty Sleva, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig.

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© 2010 by Weiss Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 15430 Endeavour Drive, Jupiter, FL 33478

Larry Edelson has nearly 33 years of investing experience with a focus in the precious metals and natural resources markets. His Real Wealth Report (a monthly publication) and Resource Windfall Trader (weekly) provide a continuing education on natural resource investments, with recommendations aiming for both profit and risk management.

For more information on Real Wealth Report, click here.
For more information on Resource Windfall Trader, click here.

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{ 25 comments… read them below or add one }

keith sipe August 16, 2010 am31 11:54 am at 11:54 am

Larry, I am a subscriber and appreciate your 2x a week updates. My question: I now have 400 oz of gold at the Perth Mint and 300 Platinum. I am about ready to take Platinum up to 400oz. My holdings are unallocated. In your opinion, should holders of bullion be in allocated metals? thx, keith

Reply

JJ August 16, 2010 am31 11:54 am at 11:54 am

Agree with you on the long term.I’ve learned that short term predictions are much harder to time correctly than long term ones.I will just stay fully invested in my mostly gold and resources related stocks,that are all in xlnt financial shape and ride out any short term downtrend.I don’t want to be caught overinvested in the common stock of a bankrupt govt,holding worthless U.S. Dollars,should the Dollar unexpectedly go into freefall.

Reply

Trish August 16, 2010 pm31 2:15 pm at 2:15 pm

Great article!

Reply

Steve August 16, 2010 pm31 3:47 pm at 3:47 pm

Did you just write this piece? With Gold at 1225, a move to 1100 or below towards the end of August would be steep. Sure you meant a 125+ move down in the next couple of weeks? Hope you’re right…I’ll be loading up.

Reply

Bud Wood August 16, 2010 pm31 9:48 pm at 9:48 pm

Although $5,000/oz gold is difficult to comprehend, you’re probably right. Seems that we are seeing the end of the big (government) spenders. Just too bad that a lot of us will be left with the bill. More scary is the civil unrest which will accompany the unfolding of the situation. I think that you’re very perceptive to now live overseas.

Your question of “has Washington lost its mind?” presumes that it had one in the first place. We’ve been voting for those people who have the most active “motor mouths” so that’s what we got. If there were some minds that came with the big talk, they were merely incidental.

Reply

Peaknik August 16, 2010 pm31 10:38 pm at 10:38 pm

I agree except I would stay the heck away from ETF gold. Especially GLD (and SLV)
There is ample evidence ETF gold is used in leasing / swapping arrangements to give the big bankers more ammo to surpress prices. In a worst case scenario it will come out that these ETF’s don’t have the metal nor will they get it when price explodes and will as a result trade at a significant discount to real metal.
If you really don’t want to hold physical in your own hand, then I think a safer option is James Turk’s goldmoney or check out what physical funds Sprott has available.

Reply

Peaknik August 16, 2010 pm31 10:49 pm at 10:49 pm

Steve, end of Aug would co-incide with options expiry when POG is always smashed.
If they can combine this with some other market turbulence forcing some big player(s) to sell off assets then yeah it is very possible scenario (+ so many are now familiar with the options expiry games that it becomes almost a pavlovian sell signal). I also think the following bounce back as commericals take opportunity to cover shorts could take hesitant traders by surprise. In fact I think increasing volatility (in an uptrend) will be the name of the game until commercials start capitulating and/or have covered sufficient numbe rof their shorts.

Reply

Eileen August 21, 2010 am31 11:45 am at 11:45 am

I haven’t heard anything about the integrity and safety of the GLD ETF. I read the prospectus and was very surprised to see that they make no guarantees against fraud, theft, poor management, etc. Read it and see what you think. Has anyone checked out the management company and the people in it. Is there any auditing or checking on how they do business?

My biggest problem is trying to figure out where to buy gold and in what form. It is complicated for me.

Reply

Melvert Gael August 21, 2010 pm31 12:36 pm at 12:36 pm

Hard to believe or imagine, though I am an 18 year old, Economics major. Hope to invest in the near future, but I will trust, to a certain degree, your words since you emphatically said it is based on the highly accurate models you have used in both trades and investment. God forbid what the Federal Reserve and the government does and may their eyes soon be opened by the dark, yes, DARK, moves they are about to do, especially in the short run. Thanks for the unbelievable article. I will be posting this on Facebook for everyone, young and old, to know this. God bless you on your work, sir!

Reply

Joyce August 21, 2010 pm31 1:13 pm at 1:13 pm

What are retirees supposed to do at this point…..we have no time to recover losses?

Reply

RUBE August 21, 2010 pm31 1:17 pm at 1:17 pm

love your charts and guidance…question…does a devaluing dollar add of reduce the value of foreign investments??

thanks..rube

Reply

Thomas A. Smith August 21, 2010 pm31 1:35 pm at 1:35 pm

Larry Edelson,

A most informative piece. Having watched your inputs as well as those of your “compadres” for a couple of years now and compared them with other offerings from similar financial companies, it appears that your offices get the nod for accuracy by a substantial margin. I have followed many of your suggestions for investments and acquired individual stocks in energy as well as ETF’s in GLD, Singapore, Chile and more. As an amateur, I have given myself a curriculum in options and the need to protect oneself in many stock transactions. I am continuing to pursue a cautious program within the trust department that holds a lot of my holdings. They have been most helpful and are pursuing many of the conservative approaches you advocate.

It is my ardent endeavor to continue the watchfulness and protections you suggest. I thank you and your group for their help.

Tom A. Smith

Reply

ger August 21, 2010 pm31 3:36 pm at 3:36 pm

Dear Mr. Edelson,

You are so sure about the POG, I want to ask you something:

Can you predict the future?

I can’t predict the POG for two seconds!!!

You must be an ultra rich man.

WOW!!!

Regards,

Ger

Reply

d ghent August 21, 2010 pm31 5:21 pm at 5:21 pm

I HAVE AVERY HIGH PROFIT IN GLD SHOULD I SELL AND BOY BACK IN AT 1100

Reply

BEERCANHAT August 21, 2010 pm31 8:27 pm at 8:27 pm

I,was wondering how [IF] a GOP victory in November would have an effect on the price of gold.Is it possible for the conservatives to halt the spending,
monetizing of the debt etc.?

Reply

Paul Pickford August 22, 2010 am31 6:13 am at 6:13 am

Hello to you,
I have been following your reports for well over the last year and have found them informative. I am from the UK and previously had no experience dealing in shares, except for an ISA that is linked to the FTSY100. This has lost me a small amount over the 6 years I have had it. I will cash this in before it looses any more money, using this to fund buying gold shares.
Bearing in mind I am British (hoping soon to purchase property in Belize) Have you any recomendations for my investment (approx US$8k) that would be suitable for a beginer with little time to keep an eye on the stock market day in day out
Thanks & kind regards
Paul P..

Reply

cyrus August 22, 2010 am31 8:50 am at 8:50 am

in a short step, what, should i invest in first next week?

Reply

Robert Brusso August 22, 2010 am31 11:57 am at 11:57 am

Its refreshing to hear everything you have said! I have followed you for only a year now but it feels like 20 yrs. If I only could get my financial advisor to grasp this I believe my future could be quite confortable.
Thanks

Reply

Jack August 23, 2010 pm31 5:29 pm at 5:29 pm

Great info Larry…

Question if you have time….perhaps address in next newsletter.

Your thoughts on Silver….will it do better or worse than gold over the next 5 years???

Thank You,

Jack

Reply

Wendell August 23, 2010 pm31 6:50 pm at 6:50 pm

I look forward each week to reading your excellent reports. I am from Canada and would like your take on the side effects of a devastated US Dollar on the Canadian Dollar?

Reply

Patrick McNamara August 23, 2010 pm31 7:45 pm at 7:45 pm

Hi Larry,
I have a great deal of trouble following the logic of investing in any US stock given that the US dollar is going to tank. Surely it makes more sense to be investing in overseas commodity stocks quoted on oversease exchanges such as Brasil, Hong Kong (for Chinese stocks), Indfia, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore. I would really appreciate your recommendations for such stocks.

Reply

Heidi August 26, 2010 am31 1:30 am at 1:30 am

If I may add something here after I read most posters :
1) I heard the same negative comments about GLD. Ask Jim Sinclair .
2) No reason to sell gold here in case it goes to $ 1100. That $ 1100 is NOT guaranteed, right Larry ? And 2nd, the way gold can popp right away after it hit a low ….I would not take my chance with that.
Just a thought .
Heidi

Reply

Heidi August 26, 2010 pm31 6:20 pm at 6:20 pm

What happen ? All of the sudden this board is not busy ? Isn’t everybody excited that silver is breaking out ? Those silver guys are all over the internet ..BUY SILVER , it’s breaking out . Why don’t they do that when silver is cheaper ..get a bargain . Buy weakness – sell strentgh ..Jim Sinclair .
Well, Larry , I’m still awaiting your answer if you do read Armstrong ?

Heidi

Reply

bill January 15, 2011 am31 8:09 am at 8:09 am

Hi there Larry: Some great taughts coming from you, BUT, Never- NEVER, get into ETF-GLD-SLV s
or even TURK-TURKY, THEY are all paper, isnt that what we are trying to get out of ?
Dont be fooled, mining stocks are [STOCKS], be very careful where you put your money.
When you have Silver-Gold [ PM] in your hands , you own it , no one else does, you can controll it ,
ratio trade it and build your stash greater,Ive traded at 101:1 and 50:1, many-many times over the last 40 years.The ratio is always changing you can make a bundle .
And the greatest feeling is that it s yours. [ ALL YOURS ] Tax free ….
When the system comes down, think about this what are we going to get ? when we sell our big stashes [ PM ] Beans-stones-a new currency, WHAT? Just a taught, but it s a good one isn”t it ?
AT PRESENT IM STAYING IN CASH ! [ CASH IS STILL KING ] everyone wants it , even you Larry,

You cant purchase Silver or Gold or anything without it, and it takes money to purchase it.
The purchasing power is bad today, from 1913 to now. but we are all still [ purchasing ] arent we ?
The FED. is bad—The gov. is bad. The money is bad.
WHO IS GOOD
Bill…………silverbill

Reply

jon April 27, 2011 pm30 4:23 pm at 4:23 pm

hows that cash treating you bill? =0

Reply

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