Plenty of big money to be made …

I don’t like the markets here. You already know that. Thing is, you’re beginning to doubt me, I know. No problem. I also know I’ll be proven right. And in the very remote case that I’m not — no problem either, there’s plenty of big money to be made ahead, either way.

Best wishes,

Larry

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P.S. The February issue of Real Wealth Report, due out in two weeks, is going to be a blockbuster! With some major forecasts and importantly, a lot of news about how Real Wealth is going to help you get positioned for the next few years — to make you more money that you ever dreamed of. To join, click here now.

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Video Transcript

Hi there! Larry Edelson here with my Uncommon Wisdom video update for Monday, February 6. Let me say — in no uncertain terms — that if you think all these markets that are rallying are about to shoot to the moon, I think you need to stand back and be very, very careful.

Yes, everything from gold to silver to stocks are rallying — but that does not mean the rallies are the real McCoy — and that they are going to continue to rally. Indeed, ALL of my indicators continue to suggest that big traps are being set, and the next big moves will not be UP, but instead, will be DOWN.

Let’s go right to the charts. Here’s my latest gold chart.

As you can see, gold is now pressing up against the top of a major cyclical trend channel, and it’s going to have a hard time getting through that resistance level.

In addition, I’m seeing signs that gold is overbought … and that demand in Asia, outside of China, is starting to slump. So I am still looking for another move down in gold. Long-term investors should hold their long-term gold positions. Speculators should continue to play the short side.

Now, my latest chart of silver.

Silver has come a lot further than I expected, no doubt about it. But here too silver is coming very close to a confluence of resistance levels on the chart, and it too is showing signs of being overbought.

Plus, it has not hit any major buy signals on my systems. I still expect a major move down in silver, and it will likely come without much notice, so please be very careful in silver.

Meanwhile, the dollar’s recent decline is beginning to stabilize. There’s mid-channel support around the 78.50 level on the Dollar Index, and I expect it to hold and give way to another rally in the dollar.

This is even more likely given the position of the euro, which has already staged a bounce that is near completion. So as the euro likely turns backs down, we will see another leg higher in the dollar.

Now to the Dow Industrials. The Dow is up against a triple-top now, and it would simply be foolish to be buying here. We may see the Dow poke a bit higher, but in my experience with triple-tops, any move up from here is likely to be a trap. Interestingly, the Dow is showing signs of what I’ve been warning all along — that it will eventually become a major new bull market. But that time has not yet arrived. We are far more likely to see a hard decline first, then a fourth attempt back to the horizontal resistance line you see on this chart. The fourth time though will be the charm, indicating a new bull market has arrived in the Dow. But I repeat, we are not there yet and a sharp, surprising sell off in the stock markets could come at any moment.

That’s it for this week. Stay tuned and best wishes, this is Larry.

Your thoughts on “Plenty of big money to be made …”

  1. Larry:

    The quality of these video updates is poor at best. Can you go back to what you were doing several months ago? I like having video reports, but I’m now just reading the transcripts.

    Real

    1. Larry,

      Chin up. I don’t rely entirely on technicals; fundamentals & psychology (mass mind are important too). All of which ignores the crass and gross manipulation of all markets by central banks, sovereign and hedge funds and large institutions and investors. Flash trading is likely to reflect psychology as it simply front runs incoming buy/sell orders.

      All to say, I’m a bear too. Any gains are caused by over-printing of currency. While there are good buys in stocks and ETFs, what good would that be if an exchange closes or crashes? Hard assets in hand is really all we have but delusional/notional profits in markets caused by currency inflation.

      Charting the past and projecting “lines of best fit” help, but how in hell can anyone factor into a chart (technicals) or a fundamental assessment (given the death of GAAP accounting), the degree of corruption which is now the norm?

      Government numbers are lies; financials are lies (thanx to mark to “imagination,” rather than to market) accounting standards. Being in any kind of paper and having all assets within “the system” is beyond what I can tolerate under current circumstances. When the stocks do take off because of money printing, how does one collect profits, it the exchange is down??? If your broker is down???

      People should now be looking to conserve wealth (and play with money they can afford to lose). Even if they don’t listen, you are doing them a service. I hope you are right about PMs taking a dip — it’s a buying opportunity, possibly the last for some time.

      Your charts reflect common sense – which is uncommon. That’s fine – people are where they are – this should not be an argument – a chart is one guide. No chart is or should be expected to be gospel. Batten down the hatches and take in a little sail seems like sensible advice to me…looking at the sky.

      Jim

  2. Larry, thanks for the update, but I wish that you had included your thoughts on oil. You were quite bearish a few weeks ago on oil, but I haven’t heard much from you on that since and the Iran situation is making me nervous. Regards!

  3. Larry, the Federal Reserve and the US Government fear deflation more than anything else, more than Superman fears kryptonite. Banks and government cannot live(grow) without asset inflation. Both the U.S. and Europe have managed to avert a liquidity crisis for now, however, if you look at the St Louis Federal Reserve website and check out the chart on M1 & M2 you can see a massive amount of money setting on the side lines. The Fed refers to this as a liquidity trap and they have forced negative interest rates on everyone to try and get this money to move. The real question, is all this money in M2 smart money? We will find out…

    Also take a look at the Council on Foreign Relations website and their recent global data and charts. China is weighted very heavily toward short term fixed instruments with very little exposure to U.S. equities. The salary pension fund for the company I work for has $30 Billion in assets and ONLY 13% of that is in equites, the rest is in fixed income and absolute real return investments and a very small amount in real estate.

    One final thing this market may be overlooking is the fact that the baby boomers started retiring in 2011 and there will be 4.3 million boomers retiring every year, that’s 358,000 a month or 12,000 each day. In all 79 million boomers will retire over the next 18 years. The boomers control 80% of the wealth in America or $45 trillion dollars. They will be tapping their retirement accounts to fund their retirement years.

    Bernanke’s sword cuts both ways, ie. Operation Twist. He wants to artificially keep short term rates negative and force money into long term treasuries to finance the government deficit at exceptionally low rates, however, insitutions investing pension funds are facing the other side of the sword and cannot earn a sufficient return to meet their obligations. Not if, but when wIll they have to start dipping into their capital i.e., selling assets to meet their obligations?

    Is Bernanke willing to maintain this risk or will somebody blink…

  4. Forgive me Larry for I have sinned.
    I was becoming doubtful. However I’m hanging in there. I’m a weak hand right now. the first quarter last year
    I lost a lot of money on the big take down, got up monday morning and my investment was gone.
    Thanks for the re-assurance.

    Ray

  5. The only comment I will make suggests a flight from Keynsian Economics to the Austrian School!!

  6. Dear Larry,

    You can’t always be right, especially on timing, and people have to accept that it’s their own responsibility whose advice they follow, and when. I am following your advice, roughly speaking; and since I thought that shorting gold and silver were much too risky for someone in my position (and, frankly, probably for most ordinary investors), I have not suffered. Missed profits are not losses, and, so far, I haven’t even missed many profits. I think that your analysis is sound and that it will pay off in the end. But if it does not, I will have the satisfaction of having listened to what I thought was good advice after my own careful consideration. Keep up the good work. Meanwhile, illegitimi non carborundum, as we say.

  7. I’m with you Larry. Your call on silver and gold’s pullback tripled my money last fall. You then said that there would be a jump up in the markets immediately following and you weren’t kidding. Perfect for doing straddles, I think most people were surprised by its extent. Next time you say the markets are going to bounce after a strong pullback my strategy will be to put on more straddle spreads. That experience taught me to be ready to patiently hold your recommendations until the big move happens then be ready to rake in a jackpot. I already agreed with your general outlook on the markets and economy, but you have very incisive insights into the machinations of the Shadow Government (the Fed and other central banks, et al) and their effect on all the sectors that I would never have the patience to study sufficiently to truly understand. Your wisdom is crucial to those of us who are mostly babes in the woods when it comes to any kind of investing or speculating in the market. Your report on China was really eye opening for sure. The apocalyptic “Kings of the East” are rising FAST! I so enjoy your newsletter, video and blog reports. It makes what is such a dry subject read more like a novel of political intrigue. And the bottom line is the results. The proof is always in the pudding or in this case in my brokerage account! Thanks for more than triple the gains in less than six months!

    1. Would you like to list a few trades that Larry recommended in the last 6 months that made you money? ZSL, GLL, SH, SPXU?

  8. I already made “big money” betting opposite of Larry and Mike. The only reason I tune into the Larry show every Monday is to see if Larry is bullish on anything, at which point I’ll start selling.

  9. I have to admit you have chutzpah Larry recommending shorting the market in a strong uptrend. While there might be some money to be made in the short term any pullback or correction will probably be quick and shallow. Barring some unforseen external event like another tsunami in Japan it’s unlikely the market will tank on a dime since volatility has dropped. It is now inexpensive for hedge funds and traders to buy put options on their long positions.

  10. To Dani. Way to cherry pick that time frame. Don’t know how long you’ve had a subscription but you’re being very generous. What about the market crash call since Aug. 2010 until today shorting getting stopped out over and over? Made a bundle on that one? Or how about shorting silver the first few months of 2011 with 3x ETF’s? And shorting the metals and market in January 2012…make a mint off of that? Please be careful singing praises…unless you work for Larry then I understand.

    1. Just put this out there so that I am not confused with the other John who posted. I am a subscriber and I am happy with the service I receive. I follow Larry’s advice. If you don’t like Larry’s advice then go somewhere else.
      If you just receive these reports for free and are not a subscriber consider that you have gotten what you have paid for.

    2. Reply to John – Yes, I am a new subscriber since June of 2011 and am just telling it like it is. Do you always assume everyone is lying or has ulterior motives when they’re being honest? Sorry if you had bad losses and are bitter, but you have a lot of nerve calling me a cherry picker. You don’t know me at all. I chose to follow Larry’s newsletter because his thinking confirms my own pessimistic views. I could be wrong and time will tell, but I won’t blame anyone but myself if things go south.Take some personal responsibility and quit blaming Larry and people like me that you don’t even know for losses if you even had any. Nobody knows the future even though evidently you think you do. Larry is giving his best thoughts on the situation if you don’t agree that’s fine just give your reasoning, but quit insulting and bullying people. It’s a poor substitute for thinking.

  11. Point and counterpoint discussions lead to a healthy learning discourse. Edelson has been uncanny in his projections in past years for which I respect him. My portfolio allocations are better aligned for market swings because of his research and vigilance. I believe his forecast information is accurate and will occur but unforeseen events affect the timing of their occurrence. Rarely can one time their arrival. Thus I suggest that arrogant voices that criticize his efforts hold their tongue or dare to enter the game of making public there own brilliant methodology. We pay for his service and for me, it is money well spent.

    1. We have made our methodology public: Go long when the market is rising, go short when it is falling. To whom shall we send the bill?

  12. Its always easy to kick someone when he looks down. If you would actually take the time to see what Larry’s allocation is of his short vs. long positions in the metals you would see that his risk is actually very minimal. In general his recommendations are very conservative. I think some people miss his point with the metals in that at this time the downside risk is much higher than the possible intermediate to short term rally. Look at the long term 200 day moving averages for silver. They are flat to still downward sloping. We are coming up on some key resistance levels and possible turning points. I think we are going to find out who is right very soon.

    1. It’s not a matter of who is right, it’s a matter of proper money management. Larry recommended hedging silver and stated that he was shorting it when silver was around $35. Silver then tanked to $25. A trailing stop should have been recommended so that his readers who followed his advice would have gotten out with a profit. They are now sitting on losses as ZSL is hitting all time lows even though SLV is nowhere near it’s all time highs. Even if silver tanks again ZSL may not recover enough to compensate for it’s time decay.

  13. Larry

    You are in the correct direction.

    In Larry we trust.

    Gold – Silver will crash like they never crash.

    Euros will crash

    Market will crash

    Than creasy bernanke will print like crasy.

    First the euro must be destroyed to postponed the USD innevitable decline.

    The last time the market were up like crasy , with all technical , economics indicator bearish.On that time the bearish have been killed.This time that the same bearish believe that it will be the same scenario will be killed again.

    1. ho monkette right now a us quarter before 1965 silver content worth $6.00 us dollar 78 cents mmmm if we dont drop our dollar like china our market will crash and our gdp will be more banckrupt than it is today !!!!! bob

  14. Larry has been bearish for months calling dow 9000 now he is covering himself either way classic quote below

    And in the very remote case that I’m not — no problem either, there’s plenty of big money to be made ahead, either way.

    So if he is wrong then there is a fortune to be made now to the upside.

    I have heard enough, just can not take this guy seriously

  15. Larry I *don’t* doubt you. All my personal research points to the same conclusions you have arrived at. Also, after several years of reading various investment newsletters, yours has been the most accurate at predicting long term and intermediate trends. The ship of the economy has already hit the iceberg; now we are just waiting while it sinks. Why is that not clear to everyone?

    Nobody is perfect at forecasting the future, especially in the short term, but in the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king. You rule!

  16. Thanks, Larry, for including partial transcripts. They help offset the poor audio (like you’re at the bottom of barrel or at the other end of a long culvert, unintelligible in places) ever since you changed to the current format. Please resume using a close-up mike. Many thanks.

  17. OK – I’m following what you recommend, but it is tough watching the silver, gold, eur and s&p to keep going in the oppsite direction – by the time it corrects, maybe I’ll break even.

  18. Larry said: “And in the very remote case that I’m not — no problem either, there’s plenty of big money to be made ahead, either way.”

    I have now exited nearly ALL my paper: mutual funds, real estate,etc. and am judiciously investing in PMs in a staged manner. I am moving my IRAs to metals, to avoid a big tax bite this year from me selling my funds,etc. I have already made that commitment, thanks to Larry, Mike, and Bob W. In the long run, one or two years at most, I’ll be glad I did.

    I interpreted Larry’s quote, using my own brain, to say that PMs will necessarily go up in the relatively short and long term. I am not a trader, but an investor. I bought some gold & silver last Friday. I am pleased with the price. I will buy if it goes up, or if it goes down. I am an investor looking for preservation, not profits. Chasing rabbits with a forest fire moving down on you is just not wise.

    Granted, I am near retirement and simply don’t have the guts or time to ride out big gambles and bad mistakes. In the end, as Mike Maloney says, gold will once again defeat government fiat currency.

    What does this gain me? Well, I can stop listening to the market reports so closely every day, dreading downs and ups. I am content to ride out spikes and dips in PMs. Yes, I’m keeping a solid cash position for unforeseen needs, and my own home mortgage, but other than that I’m into metals now.

    I hope Larry is right about the near-term dip in PMs, but if he is I’ll buy more than my buy schedule says. If he’s wrong I’ll just keep buying on my schedule. If I pay $1700/ oz and it goes down to $1400, I don’t care. If it goes up to $3400 I don’t care. I will have most of my portfolio in metals, some in cash, and some in real estate. I am done with the market, don’t believe in ETFs, gold shares, or pools; too many scams. My plan: Buy it, vault it, cover your trail, and wait for the metals bubble to start contracting before you sell it. That’s my 2 cents.

    I’m not a genius on finance, but know for sure that paper is doomed, and metals always, always win in the end. Just be glad we can even buy metals. Before 1974 we couldn’t even do that. It is also an asset class that Uncle Sam hasn’t yet decided to spy on. I see this as a relatively narrow window.

    Good luck to all.

    1. Be careful. It’s never a good idea to over concentrate in one asset class. If things don’t work out as expected in regard to PM’s you could be in a heap of trouble.

  19. It sure is amazing how some subscribers say ” Larry, you’re the man …. you hit it right on … Larry, I trust you ” and nothing but THANK YOU notes attached and others say exactly the opposite . I wonder ( really, just wonder ) if all these people read the same letter for the same week…or month . Or does Larry sent out 2 different letters ?

    Just asking .

    1. People who are investing in SH, SPXU, ZSL, GLL are losing their ASSets. They can say whatever they want but COYOTES in the woods like me know the TRUTH. Larry did make the right call to go bullish in November 2008. BUT he did not continue to ride the bull up, take some profits, buy the dips, and wait for the next real big 2008 type crash to go bearish. I’m with David X. I’ve been betting against Larry and Larson since April 2009. I have made some serious money and I just took the last major profits last week. No one can predict the future. Greed will destroy those who fail to take profits. So will betting against a bull market.

  20. I think Larry’s indicators, the euro’s demise, oil’s excesses and precious metals, to name a few, are being trumped by this American election year. The two party system works together to confuse, confiscate and connive the majority out of leveling their reasoning and resources. Only the patient, quick and wise will time their corruptness effectively. No i am not stating they are doing this intelligently but rather selfishly…bastards. Think of the tools at their disposal -wars, laws, terrorism, shifting policies, fiat currency and faulty reporting, again, just to name a few. Oh yeah, they are working for the “man” (the corrupt “man”) whom only the patient, quick and wise discern.

  21. Heidi,

    They might not even read his letters. Could be friends, co-workers, ect.

    But in all fairness to Larry, it ain’t over till the fat lady starts to sing. Last Sept in the big drop in SLV, it tanked 12 dollars a share in just several days. The very first day it gapped down about two dollars, floundered around a bit for several minutes, giving longs time to go short, and then tanked some more the rest of the day. Fast forward and we have SLV at roughly 32. If I remember correctly, Larry’s lowest prediction was a possible drop to 20, which would be about the same 12 point drop as in September. With the trouble brewing in Greece, and other EU countries getting ready to follow in the same mess, could PERHAPS soon give us the same scenario as we got last fall. Something to consider for the readers, maybe watch for and take advange of should we get a one day opening with a big gap down. As a beautiful lady once said; Just a thought…………………..

  22. nice drop on gold during Non Farm Payroll…while Crude rallied as did stocks…interesting divergences. I sold the key level 1750 and now have my stop at breakeven. Perhaps Larry will be right in the end, and also maybe the bulls will be right. Everyone will be right if they are given unlimited time, as the markets go up and down….lol 😉

    That’s why we can all say, no matter what our opinion “I’ll be proven right”

    All that matters is if there is enough margin to cover you until your right, or if you do use Stops, which are not given in this free newsletter, but I suppose do exist for the paying subscribers, as long as they are not gunned down by the market before the time comes that you are proven right.

    For now I target the former trendline breakout at 1670-80 for half. Leave the rest for this ‘Big Risk off’ – if it indeed is right. My greatest strength is admitting that I don’t know…indeed that is my edge. The problem with prediction is that it stops you from going with the flow.

    1. “My greatest strength is admitting that I don’t know…indeed that is my edge. The problem with prediction is that it stops you from going with the flow”.
      This is one of most important principles of trading. A trader should monitor a)his market bias vs chart reading b) session expectations c)method execution discipline d) session discipline e) emotional vision of the market etc.
      -and first of all PRIORITISE field of focus. If a trader focuses on a daily profit target, he leaves door open to unlimited losses. If one focuses on a ‘price move to be’, one will ignore the chart and will be taken off guard when other market condition take place. If you don’t control session discipline, you will have the tendency to to try to get the loss back, which is bad and leads to losses. If you dont control emotional vision of the market, you will fall in love with it after a big win, setting you up for a nasty suprise, because LOVE will alter your method and session discipline.
      ps
      I bought gold at 1720, lower channel line.

  23. Are you out there Farting Squidgy?,Gutenmorgen, schissen Sie Ihre Hosen während des Frühstücks? We miss your blogging flatulence. I think FS is really No Nads Jon Nadler

  24. Heidi- I’ve been a PAID subscriber since 2009 until recently. I suspect Larry’s been using Elliott Waves in his forecast which bothered me as I don’t believe they work. Personal opinion. Also when lines in the sand are drawn and penetrated they are just ignored and a new line is drawn. I could go on but I won’t, just want to give both sides of the story, people can do what they want.

    1. John, that might be so with the Elliot Wave but I also know other guys who use it but get the dips and bounces 90 % of the time right while Larry is not changing his view at all …DOW to 9000 ( for how long now ? ) , gold to $ 1400 now while it was $ 1200 before ? and many are still waiting for silver to drop to $ 21 AND MUCH LOWER as per Larry . GREED held him back to buy at $ 26 . Those prices must be his opinion and not an Elliot Wave count .
      One thing is for sure …the markets will do whatever they do and confuse most .

  25. The DOW below 9000 call started in Aug 2010. He is VERY stubborn. I don’t know exactly how he comes up with his price points, a while ago he was using the research cycle institute for cycle timing (bigger picture) and recently he could be using EW in combination with other things but who knows.

    1. His new timing method is to turn his back to the dartboard and throw the dart over his shoulder. If it hits a beer he then drinks it.

  26. Wharever Larry uses! – it’s is not healthy to hold on to the losers for so long, looking for excuses, drawing other (more comfortable) lines, altering exit levels. It’s simply not professional! Whatever is the reasoning behind a signal, not exiting when the market tells you your’e wrong is amateurish and always leads to losses which cannot be offset by wins. But this is only one of Larry mistakes. First is that he doesn’t trade the charts, I see no point in trading with no regard to price action, you should invest instead. ONE CANNOT use charts and selected (random) technical analysis as an excuse to prove your point – decision made prior to that, because you will always find a reason to enter and not to exit. You dont want to bear the loss? It’s fine! Here’s another resistance, then it’s overbought, then it’s too crazy to be sustainable – must correct, then it’s close to bull market hights, but I can see only a triple top, an ominus sign and a proof I’am right.
    Another mistake is to recommend leveraged ETF’s for long term trades – this is pure suicide, leveraged ETF’s are for short term trades only.
    But let’s say that this is the nature of common subcription business. Even a trader with pnl ratio of 7–3 has to agree to cut the loss every two trades. Larry and his subcribers want to believe they are smart enough to have no losses at all.

  27. Still long SLW with stop orders, long TGLDX and long Physical PMs. I have now taken a defensive position on my mining and royalty companies just listed to lock in +15% gains for the year. Defensive position is only to lock gains, not a change of heart on PMs. Strategy is holding physical for long term, holding TGLDX for long term with stop order trailing 10% and SLW traded more aggressively ( 40% staying put, 40% stop order, 20% cash for extreme dip buy-back). Meanwhile….back to the charts……whatever.

  28. And there we have it, the entry of FS right on cue to totally flood this blog with dribble once more. Lattters:)

  29. Today, I was told that I am smarter than I look. Usually, men could care less about my brain once they look me over. Most men are pigs but sometimes, hope comes along.

  30. FS is a moron. Putting links to get rich-quick schemes on this site…quite the investor isn’t he? By the frequency of his posts, one can safely assume that he is indeed in his mother’s basement. Oh quick FS, please tell us how plentiful gold and oil are. Please dazzle us with your not-asked for gems of “wisdom.”

    BTW, until the Euro short squeeze stops, the metals will continue to grind higher. This is in my opinion a short squeeze that is putting the dollar lower and hence the metals higher.

  31. There you are, FS, we missed you! Now go check your underwear, I bet its getting real rank and full of goodies after sitting there for days in your mom”s basement eating bowl after bowl of cereal.

  32. Where do we find your published track record, Larry? The links in the other talkback sure were not very good for your reputation. I’d like to see what you provide.

  33. Larry,

    Most of the Republican presidential candidates want to change SS drastically. Some want private accounts, some want to eliminate it all-together, etc. We all know the story.

    My question is, IF they take power of all 3 branches and gut Social Security, what impact will a few 10’s of millions of old people becoming destitute have on the overall economy? To counter that, those who are still working for wages will get a few percent raise, and of course their employers will keep the part of SS THEY used to pay for their employees – that should be good for corporate profits. Overall will it be a positive or negative change?

    Keep up the good work.

  34. Larry uses Elliot Wave and cycle analysis with much reliance on cycles. Similar to most forecasters, he has made good calls and bad calls. If anyone had a perfect trading system, they would own the market. Last time I checked no one owns the market. Develop your own approach to complement whatever analyst you follow.

  35. Beginning to doubt? Thankfully after several years I’ve never been filled with confidence that any recommendation that Larry makes is to be followed. You can tell that even he is starting to doubt his latest inverse ETF debacle by referring to big payouts on new investments in the future.
    Did you notice that he failed to tell the unfortunates to hold his inverse ETF recommendations? He will quietly drop them hoping to be allowed to start with a clean slate.
    It’s ironic that this should happen when on January 2 he claimed that he was going to make 2012 our most profitable year yet. Not a very good start. Instead we have seen the biggest monthly rallies in gold and the Dow in recent years while his recommendations have had equally large declines.
    But we have been here before. In Larry’s July 14, 2011 video he told us he would let us know when it would be the right time to buy gold. He thought that gold would display its traditional weakness in July/August and wouldn’t break through $1600. In a major move it climbed to $1900 by the end of August.
    And like last year in summer 2010 his advice was to get out of stocks and to use inverse ETFs as the Dow sinking to 9000 was imminent. He, like Mike Larson, was advising us to dump stocks at what has become a two to three year low. The S&P has increased 30% since then.
    But Larry seems to live in denial when he claimed last week to have a creditable record for forecasting market movements. It reminded me of the numerous times I’ve heard him wrongly claim that the markets have moved exactly as he suggested they would. I’d watch the previous weeks’ videos to confirm his mistaken view.
    Now that we are talking months and years maybe Larry’s January 16 header of ‘I might look foolish in the short term’ needs to be revised.

  36. This is a common subscription business. Wall Street which owns the media has no interest in teaching public or independent individuals how to make money in the markets, their aim is to suck blood off them, as much as they can and all ways they can. This is why all popular analysts are cons or whores. Media support them. Can you believe that Jack Crooks, someone who cannot make a single dollar in fx appears on CNBC as expert? Now for a year he’s been propagating calls of imminent Yen bear market, as if Yen had to react to poor Japan’s fundamentals. While all true experts have ben banned from the media or don’t seek popularity, trading on their own for themselves. If you try hard, you will find one, maybe two reliable sources of information about the market and how to make money off it. Larry is a brilliant fundamental analyst, but he cannot trade. His mistake is that he believes (?) and wants others to believe that he can. Guitar makers make guitars, you don’t expect them to play on the stage.

  37. I’ve always admired Anthony Bolton, of Fidelity. He doesn’t say very much or speak out very often but when he does it is always worth listening to. When it comes to trading he has been there and done it and quite successfully too.
    When in the last two summers on here they would have had you selling in a panic he said he would remain invested and felt that we would move into a period of low growth and not a recession. In 2008 his timing was spot on when he correctly predicted the steep declines in commodity prices.

  38. I am new and ignorant. Having said that, I want to follow Larry’s suggestion and buy into ZSL. But, there are two points I don’t understand.

    1. Is buying shares in ZSL actually going short? When reading about ZSL, it sounds like another buyer, or the “fund itself” could call the shares out of your account. I don’t understand. Or, if the price of the shares go up, is there necessarily a market for them at the then quoted price?

    2. In another section, it says there has never been any money ever paid out. What does that mean?

    1. ZSL is an inverse etf for silver. When silver goes down in price ZSL will go up in price. I have traded it before and have not had any problem selling the shares. It should only be used for short term trades however as it has a tendency to lose value over time..

  39. If the drought spreads to the midwest, Mn and So Dk are really dry. If farming gets in crisis it would be another negative to the economy. Does history repeat itself ?

    1. What do you think who is the fool here ? Larry wrote over and over again …. ” DOW to 9000 ” but it’s not coming in , oil is NOT at the $ 70 level or lower like he said …. gold is not at $ 1400 or $ 1100 ( Dec. 19 ) , silver is not at $ 22 or MUCH lower and as Larry wrote on Jan. 2 2012 …” The DOW was incapable of closing the yr. above 12,232 , let alone 12,556 key level THAT WOULD SIGNAL THAT THE DOW WAS PREPARING FOR A NEW BULL MARKET ” …….Larry’s words on Jan.2 … now Feb. 9 2012 the DOW is at 12,800 ……he is still waiting for 9000 ?
      That was an easy choice to pick the fool .
      He should read his own previous reports .

  40. Heidi, sounds like you fit the bill. Instead of quoting Larry’s predictions to make a point, how are you positioned? I warned early this year about being on the wrong side of the trade. Here are some pointers for you. Do not short the market (S&P, Dow) but also, do not go long either. Instead, focus on inflationary pressure for different sector classes. Real rate of return on different bond maturities, geopolitical events and the Euro/USD/Gold war being played out on a global scale is front and center on my indicator radar. Shorting stocks when the Fed push reelection buttons is not a good idea.

    1. pat … what bill do I fit ? I only make comments on Larry’s ” educated guesses on the markets ” and what I do is none of your business and don’t ASSUME .
      Your comment ” I warned early this year ” …. means nothing to me … NOTHING … I don’t read your newsletter in case you have one or your comments …except this time .
      Like I said … don’t ASSUME what others do .

    2. Don’t short the market but don’t go long either? How does one make money focusing on inflationary pressures for different asset classes or any of the other mumbo jumbo you spout help one make money in the stock market?

  41. Larry’s email box must be busy with subscribers queries. “Do something” letters. “Refund my losses” letters. “Cancel my membership” letters. “Reassure me” letters. “I still believe” letters. “Were these losses neccessary?” letters. “Dow 12900″ letters.

    1. Relax.
      So far gold, silver and the Dow has NOT blasted through Larry’s trend channels listed above. Don’t really understand what all the Uncommon Wisdom freeloaders are celebrating. The game isn’t over in the second inning.

      The RWR portfolio is mostly cash with some gold, gold mutual funds and a TINY allocation to GLL. Most other investments fall under the Speculative category.

      In 2008 all the bad news was supposed to be baked into the markets (just like what they are saying about the Euro debt crisis now) and look what happened.

  42. letters threatening suicide, letters threatening to hire a team of mercenaries to launch an attack on his jungle hide out(or is he still in China, amongst all those glittering lights) letters begging for him to hurry up with the next sure thing, letters to encourage grandma and grandpa that they should forget about the big current losses of the money they lent junior, because there’s plenty of money to be made ahead, so it’s Ok to go ahead and give the grandkid the rest of the life savings. :o)

  43. What channels? He keeps changing the break-out targets: first it was $1705 in gold, $33 in silver. Now…blah blah blah

  44. So far this looks like a rally in a bear market. Either way the lows of December are likely to be tested. Highs likely next week, right after Valentines Day.

    The silver bull market won’t even start until price exceeds $50….Here’s what I tell my close friends and family members. Keep buying a little silver each week…don’t even think about it. Here is where you can do it easily.
    http://www.SilverGoingUp.bigbig.com

    Dollar averaging is the no brainer way to accumulate this asset class. At the very least it will keep you up with the falling dollar and when the precious metals finally top you could find yourself with a nice little nest egg.

    My best to all….especially you Larry for sharing you major cycles with us.

    Jack

    1. Between $33. and $50. for silver is a 50% gain. I don’t know if that’s a bull market but it is one hefty increase in price.

  45. I am a novice investor who is here to learn. I do not have much to invest (or lose). I became an investor because this is how to grow wealth. I am mostly into well researched penny stocks and silver with the highest swings in hopes of large gains to kick start my investment account.

    My main hang-up is how do you factor in all the geopolitical flash events. What will conflict in middle east do to the markets? Up, down, or crash? What will the next US credit downgrade do to the markets?

    Does anyone know if stock market trend software (based on price, performance and rank only – no emotion) gives you enough time to sell when the stock changes from “buy or hold” to “sell” when a severe downturn or crash occurs?

    Any advice from you Larry would be appreciated. Your post is my main “go to” place to see what is really happening behind all the hype.

    Hats off to you Larry and all those who post here. I am learning a lot and enjoying learning.

    Josh

  46. Looks like we are not far from the plunging markets as the resolution of the Euro drama now. Cash (not gold) will be king.

    A lot of people who post here have been taking the opposite position from Larry claiming that is the only way to make money. You are going to experience the trap door opening underneath your longs in short order. Have fun!

    1. You said you were in cash and based upon what you say I suggest that you don’t invest in the market as it sounds like you wouildn’t know when to sell. The people that have been long know when to start cashing in to lock in profits. That’s the difference between the people who have been short during this uptrend and are still sitting on losses. They will need a big ride down just to break even. Everytime the market undergoes a correction the bears believe that it is going to crash and so far that has not been the case and I suspect that is not the case now. If it does head south then that will be the time to go short.

  47. The metals are going to go much lower which will be the time to buy them (if you have cash).

  48. I think there are a couple of items that any reasonable investor or trader should keep in mind. The cycles/wave are probably good guides because they tend to follow the market patterns (and thus human social patterns) over time. There are outside forces that come in to disrupt those patterns which are difficult to predict. Politicians who change the rules to self serve their re election desires, the Fed with Uncle Ben trying to manipulate the market to move forward without ever having a major correction, natural disasters etc…

    Each of those items (and more) can affect the cycle timing and how the market behaves, so if we keep all of that in mind, use Larry’s analysis, and try to follow a longer timeline for perspective, then we have a better chance of success. In the end there’s a big “chance” factor involved so I can’t really blame Larry, do what you do best Larry & we’ll put that into our perspective with the unknown forces at play & take profits when they come by.

    P.S. The DOW/ S&P levels right now are looking very similar to ’08 & ’09 so be careful in case of that long awaited drop!

  49. Would you mind explaining how the DOW and S&P look similar to 08 & 09 that indicates a drop? I am looking at the S&P 500 and the current chart formation from August 2011 looks almost identical to the chart formation that started in November 2008. A lower low was hit in March 2009 just as a lower low was hit in October 2011 and the market rallied big time from that point on just as it is doing now.

  50. Can anyone comment on the relative value, efficiency, and time decay of put options in comparison to inverse ETFs? I’ve seen a lot of people recommend options instead of ETFs. My main issue with options is that the bid/ask spread always seems to cost me money unless I sit in front of the computer and manually enter the trade during the day, which I don’t have time to do on a regular basis.

  51. Problem with cycles and elliot wave is that they are based on Human Emotion, but the market has gone algorithmic. Its all emotionless and thus the cycles will probably change. Just a thought anyhow.

  52. Seriously, you guys are being too critical, sure everyone can make some bum calls once and a while. If you guys go long, then don’t worry, the price will be down one day. We don’t all have crystal balls, but Larry has been pretty accurate but no one can predict time. Good Luck and remember look in the mirror next time, and I bet we all see a few flaws

    1. Here’s a quote posted above by this blogger who is calling others “critical” :

      “There you are, FS, we missed you! Now go check your underwear, I bet its getting real rank and full of goodies after sitting there for days in your mom”s basement eating bowl after bowl of cereal.”

      And these words aren’t critical??!!! Can you spell H Y P O C R I T E ?

      1. He might not have crystal balls or might not have any for that matter, but he might have a glass brain.

  53. Larry will be back when the market start trumbling lol

    No need to debate on wether he is right or wrong.The future will tell us.

    Personally I follow larrys advised that is fully recouped by other serious adviser.

    Be prepared it will trumbled , I sold all EURO position at 1.32.Will buy back at 1.15.Like Larry said , there is a lot of money to be made

  54. I am really surprised to hear how many of you are foolishly heaping praise and support on this guy. He has been dead wrong about everything over the past 8 months. Last summer he was saying do not buy gold (like is now) and gold went from $1400 then to $1730 now. The euro recommendation was dead wrong and if you bought the reverse ETF you lost money. Nasdaq is at five year highs. The Dow just crossed into a 12-month high and the S&P is three points from a 12-month high. If you followed his recommendation buying reverse ETF’s, you lost money. Wake up subscribers–this guy is passing out bad advice. The markets will likely continue to climb because the Fed and central banks are pumping up the cash. Equities are rising and commodities may very well follow. Uncommonstupidity.com will be all his adherents. Good luck. I am making money being a Larry contrarian.

    1. To those of you still wondering what happened to Larry, here is the cover story:
      The Weiss administrators have decided to preempt Larry’s column and those of all its other analysts for a period of time—suspending them—in favor of what they consider a huge profit making opportunity in natural gas, being presented by Weiss commodities analyst Sean Brodrick in a series of articles and videos promoting his newsletter on the subject.

      Natural gas………….something like farting softly.

  55. UPDATE:

    The behind-the-scenes monumental struggle continues. The financial system of the world is the stakes. Investigations are going on silently behind-the-scenes—-BIG ones! Big people and big organizations are involved.

    Have any of you figured out the answer to the question I posed a few weeks ago?
    1. Why did the U.S. Congress allow (even promote) a communist nation, China, seemingly bent on the total destruction of the Western system of government, to make $200 billion a year in trading profits with the U.S. while the American people received shoddy, poisonous, toxic, and faulty goods in return, and which money allowed China to build its military to HUGE proportions, now including top class nuclear submarines and missile delivery systems?
    They did that knowing full well, that millions of jobs would be exported to China in the process, crushing the economic welfare of millions of Americans in the process. Why would they allow such a thing—even promote it?

    Have any of you brilliant analysts figured that out yet?

  56. The questions we are dealing with here are far LARGER than which stock or ETF goes up or down or whether silver or gold goes up or down each day.

    The things NOW happening behind-the-scenes—-the MONUMENTAL STRUGGLE—-will determine the future of you, me, and all Americans for the next several centuries.

    From west to east, from east to west, and back again? Men fear the dragon!

  57. Meanwhile Larry continues to fortify his bunker under the South China Sea. Will Janet Reno storm the barricades before the opposition does? Will the treasure “inside the great hill” be taken away and hidden yet again?

    The fates of men depend on what transpires in the time period ensuing herewith.

    From west to east, from east to west, and back again? Old debts are owed, yea ancient ones. Men fear the dragon.

  58. Forces and alliances you know little or nothing of are even now battling in a monumental struggle that will determine YOUR future and mine. The entire wealth of the world is only $65 trillion, yet the “shadow market” controls $600 trillion of money created out of thin air.

    The “insiders” continue to funnel massive amounts of money to themselves in a desperate attempt to avert or postpone the inevitable.

    The time was when your father’s fathers fought because of the great lie.
    The crippled one of power moved swiftly in the west to take what was not his. The son of the Sun moved swiftly in the east to confiscate what was not his.The obscure painter grown to power moved swiftly in the center to take what was not his. On all sides of the triangle, the treasure was taken captive. But to what end? For what purpose?

    Which of you will fit the pieces of the puzzle together first? I’ve given many hints now.

  59. Can you only speak in riddles? I get bits and pieces but I know you will never get a straight word out of you anyhow. Some nutter even claims the queen is a lizard from mars…he really is convinced, but naturally expects you will not believe him….anyway not really here to debate this.

    The other day I read an article about how Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of the Black Swan Theory, apparently called the Market Crash as ‘early’ as 2004….I thought what is the good of that? I also believe Precter of Elliotwave Internation said it was coming in 2004. Ok so it did eventually come. But if you listened to those ‘oh so cleverly first to know’ type, you would have been shorting from 2004 to 2007 and probably been
    wiped out well before the crash finally came.

    However, I do now see Gold heading lower now, not necessarily all the way to the late Dec 2011 lows, but I am holding short from 1750. I will peal off a quarter every $50 handle and leave the last on ‘just in case’. There is a chance of 1 more test higher…if momo head north I will bail but I will then reshort at 1765-75.

  60. Thing is, you’re beginning to doubt me, I know. No problem. I also know I’ll be proven right.

    That Larry is called hubris. I expect better from you.

  61. @Yurps
    Please do not lump me in with the Englishman Icke and his lizard queen beliefs. Although, knowing of the nefarious activities of the Brit leaders through long decades of recent history and the physical appearance of their faces, I can see how he might make such an assumption. :)

    What we are trying to get you respected bloggers to figure out with all our many hints involves far more than a mere collapse in any stock market. Think big Yurps—-really big!

  62. Surely one of you can figure out the last part of my previous email. Surely! Come on now, THINK! That clue should be obvious to anyone with a knowledge of recent history.

  63. RE: that article I just referenced with a link– one of the bloggers left this response to it:

    “A real possible corollary threat to government from those transacting in gold become when companies or individuals tkae payment at the legal tender value of gold or silver coins, thereby receiving nominally say $20 in pay or revenue for their products/labor/service, but in gold dollar value $1650 – so technically having received only 1/83rd of what would be the dollar amount they would accept, they will owe only 1/83 in taxes as the revenue or salary will legally be only that”

    That is VERY interesting isn’t it? If a person transacted business with another in gold coins with face values of $20, but real values of $1650, what income tax would the receiver owe?

  64. Remember all the propaganda spouted by the U.S. administration leading up to the initial attack on Iraq? Remember all the supposed “weapons of mass destruction?” Remember how Congress said it believed all the info it was being fed? Remember the noble Collin Powell’s embarrassment when he had to stand before the U.N. and spout lies, debasing his own character?

    That was then, this is now. Anyone feeling deja vu?

  65. Add the clue of the taxable amount of gold transactions given above to the historical clues and go back and read the poem in a previous blog from an earlier Larry article.

    Piece it all together! I don’t want to spill the beans just yet………………………….

  66. This is what appeared in Jan 2011 Real Wealth Report. How accurate was he?

    The Real Wealth Macro-Economic Forecasts for 2011 …
     China to soon revalue yuan, turning the world upside
    down, slamming U.S. dollar to the mat
     U.S. stock market will plunge to Dow 9,000
     Why Bernanke is loving rising interest rates, and why
    they will not prevent inflation from surging higher
     Gold and natural resources entering short-term bear
    markets that will lead to the most explosive up move of their
    long-term bull markets

  67. Larry, the market closed the month with your channels intact. The RWR portfolio is holding firm. Your RWR portfolio allocations are solid.

Comments are closed.