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You know where I stand on just about all the markets. And not much has changed in them, or my views, since I spoke with you in my column last week, or even via my video update last Thursday.
So today I want to change things up a bit, and address a very important topic. One that scares the heck out of me, quite frankly … and one that I know many people are thinking about.
Sadly though, there are very few even willing to discuss this topic. So that makes it even more imperative that I get the word out.
The topic, or perhaps I should say question, is the following:
Throughout history, major wars have often been triggered by financial crises. So the question is: Will today’s great financial crisis — the worst since the 1930s Depression — lead to World War III? And if so, when?
This is a very important topic for all of us, for a variety of reasons. And naturally, there’s no way I can do it justice in a singe column. Or even in a 400-page book.
But the least I can do is share my research on the subject with you, and more importantly, give you an idea as to whether or not the current financial crisis could lead to a major war, and if so, when.
To do so, I will borrow upon my original research on the topic of war, published, copyrighted and filed with the Library of Congress in Washington D.C. in May 1988.
It was a special report I put together in the mid-1980s — for the benefit of my advisory firm’s clients and investors in two privately managed commodity funds where I was the senior trader.
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That report, and the research it contained, forecast political and cultural instability beginning in May 1989 and increasing into June 1990; in August of that year, Iraq invaded Kuwait, touching off Gulf War I. The data also helped me issue major forecasts for how the Dow Industrials would respond to the crisis. It turned out to be right on the money.
I have recently updated that report and it’s titled, like the first one, “The Cycles of War.” I’ve also copyrighted it and filed it with the Library of Congress in Washington D.C.
No doubt, the subject of war evokes a very basic and fundamental emotion. After all, “war”, or social conflict, is in a very real sense, the result of basic human emotions, just as love, hate, fear and greed are.
And, sad but true, the history of war is very much a part of the history of mankind. It is a cycle of life and death, of prosperity and depression, panic and serenity — and of the rise and fall of great powers and civilizations.
Unfortunately, based on my research …
The cycles of war — the natural rhythms that predispose societies to descend into chaos, into hatred, into civil and even international war — are building momentum again, and threaten to bear down on the world in short order.
When? Well, we’re already seeing the beginnings of the cycles, in the riots in Greece, Thailand, and elsewhere. I’ll give you more on the timing in a minute.
But first, please note: My message today only pertains to whether or not we face a high probability of a major war in the future, and when. In this short column, I simply cannot cover who will be at war, what the precise triggers and reasons will be, or how the markets will respond. I will cover that at a subsequent date in my Real Wealth Report.
Second, I have attempted below to make this as easy to understand as possible. Cycles are a complex subject, even more so when you are studying the cycles of war.
Some Background on
My Research into the Cycles of War
I’m not the first to conduct research into the rhythms or cycles of war. There have been many before me, notably, Raymond Wheeler, who has published the most authoritative chronicle of war ever, covering a period of 2,600 years of data.
And Mr. Edward R. Dewey, the noted cycle theorist and founder of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles.
In 1964, after having worked extensively with Wheeler’s data, Mr. Dewey discovered a 17.71 year cycle in war. In other words, throughout 2,600 years of data, there seemed to be a natural tendency and high probability for societies to engage in conflict, every 17.71 years, on average.
Dewey’s work was way ahead of its time. But as I examined the data and cycles as they panned out in the 19th and 20th centuries, they often missed the mark by being too early or too late, and at other times, seemed to have no impact at all.
As a result, in my early years studying Dewey’s work and the Wheeler Index, I concluded that there seemed to be little correlation between events, and that something larger was impacting the cycles. So I set out to find out what that might be.
In short, I discovered that what was impacting the cycles Dewey and Wheeler had discovered was none other than the monetary system.
Effectively, when governments made changes to their monetary systems, the timing of the war cycle was often distorted, arriving early, or in some cases too late.
I then tested and re-tested my data and theories. And I concluded that …
A. When governments and central banks tinkered with the value of a country’s money, revaluing its currency (mostly devaluing), in the midst of financial crises, it could have either a positive or negative effect on the war cycle coming due. The determining factor seemed to be whether or not the country became protectionist, engaging in trade wars first.
B. In social phenomena such as war, just as in financial markets, cycle timing dates relate more to TURNING POINTS in time, than the amplitude of the cycle.
In other words, one could not forecast the intensity of war alone from the timing of the cycles, just when there would be a window in time where war was not only likely, but probable.
And …
C. Dewey’s original cycles were more accurate when defined as an 18-year cycle, but within the confines of a much larger 54-year cycle, which I labeled the 54-Year Socio-Political Cycle.
Here is a listing of the dates/turning points that resulted from my work … how they panned out and intertwined with major economic and geo-political events … and where those turning points lie in the future.
Shown next is a cycle chart of my 54-year Socio-Political Cycle, with the 18-year war cycle overlaid, as well as the 4.5- and 9-year economic cycles that I often work with for my forecasting methods.
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Note the commentary at the bottom. I published this chart before North Korea allegedly sunk a South Korean warship.
ALSO NOTE: This mathematically generated cycle chart shows that for the period from 2014 through 2017, the world is, sadly, at a very high risk of a major, international war. A war that could be as significant as the Korean War, and quite possibly, World War III.
I hope I am wrong. I hope and pray that the leaders of the world recognize that times of financial chaos are also times that can lead to terrible consequences.
But whether they do, or do not, I hope that you take this information very seriously, and take the necessary steps to prepare your family … your loved ones … and your finances — by recognizing and acknowledging the potentially dire times that may lie ahead.
My 2010 edition of the Cycles of War report is available for $79 by clicking here.
Better yet, for just $99 — consider a 1-year subscription to my Real Wealth Report, where you can get the Cycles of War for free, plus two other free profit guides, and of course, 12 hard-hitting monthly issues of my core publication, and all the insights and recommendations I publish.
Best wishes,
Larry
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{ 10 comments… read them below or add one }
It would have been much more interesting and relevant if you would have included WWII and WWI in the chart. So what about 2016? There’s nothing to compare it to the way you have it presented. What about Iran/Iraq war, US/Iraq War II, – they don’t quite fit your cycles.
That’s a mold-berakre. Great thinking!
You are right. I do not like to talk about it or hear it. But, I feel strongly that you are correct. As if the world were not a big
enough mess already. It seems people think that war will get them what is missing in their lives…food, water, security, whatever.
What war begets is misery and death. Not what most people seek.
The misery that people have begs for resolution and a state of quiet.
But the hell of war is much much worse than the slow misery and death of deprivation and stress.
It only seems like war will provide relief. It never does. Never.
War is not the answer to prayers of relief, it is just a release from life.
So, I hope you and I are completely wrong. I pray that we do not have a major war. We are bankrupt right now.
We can not afford another war. We can not afford the wars we have!!
The future holds pain and austerity and loss of freedom without war. War is not going to bring those back.
It will only abridge even more freedoms and create even greater deprivations.
How can we avoid this cycle? That is what we must do, you and I.
First we must not be part of the problem. Second we must not make war seem like a ‘reasonable’ alternative.
And third, we must speak long and loudly against war at every turn. There will be many attempts to push us all over the
edge of sanity and into war. We must resist the seemingly easy road to war. We must take the very hard road to peace.
This means we must find a way to create prosperity in a world of chaos and hatred and deprivation.
We must do this. For if we do not, millions could and probably will die by the implements of war. And by starvation and disease anyway.
You are right, people do not talk about it. They are scared to death that you are right and that ours sons and daughters will go off to war and not return. Worse, we will all be involved and many die by war that comes into our country and our homes.
Those thoughts are avoided by reasonable and peace loving people.
Tell us how to avoid war. Tell us what we must do. Tell us to sacrifice to avoid war…bacause war is unthinkable because we have become to efficient at war. And not efficient enough at preventing it. WE NEED TO BECOME EFFICIENT AT PEACE!!
Starting now.
As they say here in Hawaii: LIVE ALOHA
Tom Beach
Why is the period from 2014 through 2017 a high risk of a major war, when the arrow is pointing to the high point on the red curve at 2012.8?
With your friendly U.S. Defence Dept already hoarding bunker busting bombs and Stealth bombers in Diego Garcia ready to turn Iran into a wasteland of shattered concrete, I think your forecast should be for 2011 as start of war.
VERY interesting insight! As a current subscriber to your premium Real Wealth Report service, you amaze me at how accurate you are. I thought you were crazy when you said the DOW would reach 10K. Then when you suggested to buy last March during the bloodbath was remarkable. I am anxious to learn if your prediction regarding the US$ being replaced as the world currency will also happen. So, I take notice when what you said about War on the horizon. This confirms what I have read from other services I subscribe too.
I am very interested in reading your Cycles of War report you just published. My question for you is that I see you offer it free to new subscribers of your Real Wealth report, will you also offer it free to your current subscribers too? I hope so.
Keep up the great work.
I am an Autodidact student of history. The Number one method that The Conspiracy {I am using Larry Abraham’s definition} has used to end severe Economic Depressions, during the past 500 years {including Rome’s time of Empire}, HAS been major Wars! Of course it is possible now. I put the probability at 50/50! The Major Powers, today, are doing –AGAIN — the same thing that caused
W.W. 2—appeasing North Korea AND Iran. ALL of the so-called “U.N. sanctions” are a transparent joke, to anyone with an IQ over 55! But the majority of the West’s citizens DO NOT see that. A major War {it would not be a nuclear war–that would be over too quickly} is definitely a possibility! After all, a “good” conventional War would sure reduce unemployment!
Mr. Edelson,
I always look forward to reading your column and now I am also a new subscriber to your Real Wealth Report.
I am thankful to have access to your expert guidance.
Did you catch Rep. Michelle Bachmann’s brief talk on Monday?
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/294048-1
(It starts around the 3:28:45 mark and last about 10 min.)
Many of your reports have illustrated all these concepts supported by many facts.
Are there any of your reports that tally this shifting of free enterprise to government control which she described?
If not, this would be a great topic to highlight in one of your columns.
Or maybe there are many things I do not understand about her comment that the U.S. is on a quick path towards 75% government control and this is perhaps an overstatement?
It is truly frightening that the U.S. government can keep making this crisis worse in such a short time frame.
and now I continue to better understand why you are so passionate about describing our inevitable future.
Thanks again,
Some great comments, Larry, but I think that you are putting the emphasis on the second derivative of the changes that lead to war. The third derivative that influences the rest of the fluctuations that lead to wars is the payment of interest on the medium of exchange used by countries or civilizations.
This is akin to a “field effect” much like gravity. However, it works in the opposite direction. It exists everywhere, and when the effect causes hills to arise, they grow bigger. As the power of the bigger hills becomes apparent, steps are taken to make them into mountains.
When the mountains reach a certain height, and the valleys get too deep, a war results. Wars used to solve the problems by the victor getting the spoils, but now the victors seem to be the losers by inheriting all the problems of the loser.
Whether this factor fits in any way into the calculations, I will have to leave to your studies on the subject.
In an unrelated conversation with some family members, up pops a reference of this article.
No way did I remember anything what was being said and later it was forward to me.
Absolutely amazing! These projections won’t come to past based on flipping a
switch or an alarm going off. Just about every baby born, only on occasion, is born on
the anticipated date. Just to share with you what our conversation was about,
it was The End of Time. We were nitpicking the real prophecies of the bible.
The only prophecy that had a time set on it was the occupation of Israel
by the Israelites on May 14, 1948. (Over 2500 years old) That event started
things in motion for events to come , coordinating with your “War Cycle”
of things to come for the 3rd and last world war. One of the prophecies
spells out one of the signs; Israel will be surrounded by nations and kings
with no country in the world giving them support. Are we almost there?
I don’t know how determined this administration is to support that little
piece of property. This administration’s backbone is like a bowl of Jell-O without the bowl.