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Lots of money to be made … in the Dow, Gold, Silver, the Dollar and Oil

Larry Edelson | November 21, 2011

In last week’s video and in my Nov. 7 column, I gave you very specific forecasts on key markets: The Dow Industrials, gold, silver, the euro and oil.

I also gave you some suggestions on how to play those forecasts. Now, I’m happy to say, those forecasts seem to be coming to fruition.

So let’s review them, since the markets are making critical moves and there’s lots of money to be made!

First up, the Dow Industrials. Here’s what I said two weeks ago: “The Dow is still under the influence of a weekly sell signal that has not been reversed and would only be reversed if the Dow were to close above 12,498. For the S&P 500, the equivalent signal would be a close above the 1,307.25 level.”

And in last week’s video, I added that the “Dow was failing at massive resistance” and that it was “preparing for a new leg down.”

Over the past several trading sessions we did indeed see the Dow try to push higher, but now it’s succumbing to the selling forces at work. Those include a not-so-good economy in the U.S. … and a wickedly plunging European economy that’s being devastated by a sovereign debt crisis.

Now, here’s an updated chart of the Dow Industrials from last week’s video:

As you can clearly see, the Dow was repelled by overhead technical resistance, and it stumbled sharply last week. It is now on a path toward much lower levels, with the first support level coming in around 11,200, and then the previous low around the 10,300 to 10,400 level.

I’ve previously suggested inverse ETFs such as the ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 ETF (SDOW) and the ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 Index Fund (SPXU) and others. Hold them!

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Next, none other than gold, the market that seems to set off more emotional reactions than any other. Here’s what I said two weeks ago, “Gold would require a close above the $1,830 level to negate all the sell signals my system has generated.”

And in last week’s video I showed you a chart of gold, demonstrating the massive overhead resistance in gold, and telling you, in no uncertain terms, that “the pressure is still on gold” and that “you should refrain from adding any new positions or trading the long side on a short-term basis.”

Few believed me. But now, here we are and gold has plunged back down to near the $1,700 level, generating a very important sell signal by closing below $1,754.

Make no mistake about it: Gold is under pressure cyclically, technically from the charts, and fundamentally — because the crisis in Europe is sending hoards of investors into liquidation mode and into cash.

So while one might think the crisis in Europe is bullish for gold, it is not. The sovereign debt crisis will only become bullish again for gold once the United States meets the reaper with its debt crisis, which will become the biggest in the history of civilization.

Here’s an updated daily chart of gold. You can clearly see how gold’s attempt to get back above the $1,800 mark failed miserably, and now, how the next leg down should be underway.

Look for support at the following levels …

$1,696.50
$1,567.40
$1,432.90
$1,386.90
$1,253.80

I suggested a purchase of the ProShares UltraShort Gold ETF (GLL). If you acted on that suggestion, hold that position!

Now, to silver. In my previous column I told you that for silver to turn bullish again it would require a close above the $38.88 level. And in last week’s video I told you that I believed that “another devastating crash in silver was about to begin.”

With last week’s selloff from a high of $34.92 to a low of $30.92 as I pen this column, I believe silver’s next leg down has begun.

Warning: Once you see silver close below $29.13, the crash will be in full force. Though there are some support levels below $29, they are minor and I fully expect to see silver plunge to at least $25, and probably much lower.

You can see my latest silver chart here.

And here are my updated system support levels for silver:

$29.136
$27.981
$23.931
$23.341
$19.996
$19.521

I suggested you purchase the ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF (ZSL).If you acted on that suggestion, hold that position!

Now, the U.S. dollar. Here’s what I said two weeks ago: “Naturally, as cash leaves Europe and heads down a rabbit hole for safety, it’s going to … the dollar [since it's] still the world’s reserve currency.” And in last week’s video, I told you that “everything I monitor tells me that the dollar is going to rally more now.”

Here’s a chart of the U.S. Dollar Index. As you can see, the dollar has staged a pretty significant rally, a rally that’s the precise opposite image of the euro, which is plunging.

Expect the dollar rally to continue. But bear fully in mind that it’s only a matter of time before the dollar’s bear market resumes.

I previously suggested an inverse ETF position on the euro, which is effectively like going long the dollar, via the ProShares UltraShort Euro ETF (EUO). If you acted on that suggestion, hold that position!

And now, to oil. While oil staged what seemed to be a powerful rally last week, soaring to over $100 a barrel — I repeat my recent warnings: “There is very little doubt in my mind that crude oil has experienced nothing more than a sharp, short-term rally that has done nothing to change the intermediate-term trend which remains bearish.

“For that trend to be reversed, oil would have to close above $100.93 on a Friday, weekly closing basis.”

Oil failed to close above that level. So I remain bearish on oil. I suggested buying the ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oil ETF (SCO). If you acted on that suggestion, hold that position!

Stay tuned!

Best wishes, as always …

Larry

P.S. For more in-depth analysis of today’s rapidly changing world and markets, including very specific entry and exit points for many more recommendations, it behooves you to consider a membership to my Real Wealth Report.

It could not only save you tens of thousands of dollars by helping you to appropriately protect your money — but also help you garner potential HUGE profits as well. To join, click here now.

Larry Edelson has nearly 33 years of investing experience with a focus in the precious metals and natural resources markets. His Real Wealth Report (a monthly publication) and Resource Windfall Trader (weekly) provide a continuing education on natural resource investments, with recommendations aiming for both profit and risk management.

For more information on Real Wealth Report, click here.
For more information on Resource Windfall Trader, click here.

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{ 17 comments… read them below or add one }

John Stevens November 21, 2011 am30 8:47 am at 8:47 am

Larry, How low do you see gold going on this pull back?

Reply

Will November 21, 2011 am30 10:16 am at 10:16 am

Great call Larry!

Reply

Marco November 21, 2011 pm30 1:36 pm at 1:36 pm

Now that you are right Larry, I don’t see any of the people who have scolded you here posting today. Only when your predictions don’t come through immediately do they come on here posting negative views. Why do they not come here and post when your predictions come true. If they can scold you when you are wrong, they might as well congradulate you when you are right. I guess some are always right and they can only see when you are wrong! Thanks for the articles. Keep them coming!

All the best!

Reply

Ratzalot November 23, 2011 pm30 11:51 pm at 11:51 pm

The right or wrong guessing game is only relevant to the paper gold/silver trading game. It has no bearing on investors of physical gold/silver. Acquire physical metals while you can and hold them.

Reply

david November 26, 2011 am30 11:35 am at 11:35 am

Right on–buying opportunity coming up!

Reply

Carlos November 21, 2011 pm30 1:46 pm at 1:46 pm

Thank you Larry!!!

Reply

Zachary November 21, 2011 pm30 4:10 pm at 4:10 pm

We have seen a minimal pullback, touching prices we have already seen multiple times in the recent hindsight. I think the “great call” is better reserved for the moment, if it comes, that Gold drops below $1,500.00 and Silver trades sub $26.00. Until then, we are just seeing market volatility. Still no discussion on physical inventory vs. paper spot. So what are you all so excited about?

Reply

John T. Berg November 21, 2011 pm30 8:42 pm at 8:42 pm

Just read this on Harvey Organ’s site:

“Today the Globe and Mail announced Eric has filed a short form follow up Prospectus for a billion five physical silver, holy jeepers, it could be approved in as little as two weeks people tell me, and he can trigger it OVERNIGHT without warning. Just bang if he has got the orders. WE all know what happened with his last Physical Silver Issue, it was 580 millionand blasted Silver 18 to 50 bucks in 5 months.”

Seems we may see a big runup in silver prices beginning within two weeks. Any analysis on this one?

Reply

Zachary November 21, 2011 pm30 10:56 pm at 10:56 pm

John T. Berg,

You won’t hear anything from Larry or the majority of other readers on here, as you brought up a “physical silver issue”, which is ignored here.

If that trigger is pulled by Eric Sprout , there will be, as you pointed out from the past, a huge run for physical metal. Here is an interview with Eric Sprout. He too discusses the divergence between paper (comex) prices and physical prices.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/307507-this-will-be-the-decade-of-silver-interview-with-eric-sprott

Reply

Jim Widgren November 22, 2011 am30 9:22 am at 9:22 am

Thanks Larry, your call let me reap a very nice run up in gold and now I can wait for a base to form before getting back in and doing it again!

Reply

Polo November 22, 2011 pm30 3:19 pm at 3:19 pm

Marco,

Now that the volatility is shown, and spot has ticked back north, are you so sure Larry was “right”.

Reply

Steve Kennedy November 22, 2011 pm30 4:55 pm at 4:55 pm

Larry, Martin & Mike,

If you don’t think that we are going to have worldwide hyper inflation, here’s a brief article about the just-completed, first-ever, audit of the Federal Reserve. It may make your blood boil, or it may make it run cold. It will grab your attention. There are links to the GAO’s audit report.

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.11/gaoaudit.html

Best regards,

Steve Kennedy

Reply

Mike November 23, 2011 pm30 5:44 pm at 5:44 pm

@Steve Kennedy

This link is fascinating regarding the 16 trillion. Do you happen to have any other articles or websites that reference this audit or these numbers? I’m NOT doubting the validity of the link you already posted, just looking for more.

Reply

Jack November 22, 2011 pm30 7:57 pm at 7:57 pm

Right on Larry….again you save many.

As for physical silver and inflation etc….it is a different animal. When you invest in the metal itself you are
buying for the full up cycle which is not due for at least 4 years. Just keep buying a little every week.

Then when the bottom comes in and starts up you will find you have a nice pile. Just keep buying as the bull market in silver will only just be getting started once it is over 50….so buy some every week….here is the best place I’ve found to do just that guys….

http://www.SilverGoingUp.bigbig.com

When it hits 1600 in 2020 you will be glad you did….

Reply

Heidi November 24, 2011 am30 5:42 am at 5:42 am

Guys, you have to be fair … forecasts are never 100 % just like with the weatherman …I never had one that was 100% … and that incl. Martin Armstrong and even David Bensimon ( Polar Pacific … mostly to be seen / heard in Vancouver, Canada …or Thailand ) charges $ 300 for a letter … compare that to Larry … and Bensimon got it all wrong from June on …markets tanked by about 25 % and HSI tanked over 30 % . That was one heck of a disappointment for me . I think Larry did a good job so far at least on the markets … with gold / silver … not sure but sofar Larry is too bearish ( and wrong as well ) for my taste but we are also not done yet . But since he is a student of Martin Armstrong … let’s see what Martin wrote ..
Oct. 14 2011 ” If Gold closes above $ 1405.50 it’s possible that the current bullish long-term trend will cont. next year . A closing below $ 1405 by year end would signal a low is likely going into 2012 . ”
Of course … as I said before even Martin A. gets it wrong from time to time .

That article from Eric Sprott sure was good … can’t wait !!!

Reply

frances November 30, 2011 pm30 10:29 pm at 10:29 pm

Did Larry say in his latest video the DOW WILL be at 10,500 by this week???…you know…the video he recorded likke Tuesday/Wednesday of last week???….oh, that’s right..he did cover his ignorance by saying there could be rallies…

Reply

Wayne December 1, 2011 am31 9:41 am at 9:41 am

Hmmm. Larry, you recently recommended to get out of precious metals, then they went up dramatically?
That cost me a lot of money. With more advice like this, I’d go broke. And you -charge- for this advice?
Color me “not impressed”.

Reply

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