Important year-end signals!

Good morning! I’m on my way back to Bangkok, some 40,000 feet over the North Pole as you read this column. I’ll be back online Tuesday afternoon, but let me tell you right now, virtually all markets are shaping up for some pretty wild moves as we head into the end of the year.

So much so, that I’ve decided I want you to have some very important technical signals for year-end. I’ve borrowed some of today’s content from my October Real Wealth Report which published last Friday.

In particular, I’m going to give you my important leading indicators for year-end moves in many major markets, and what those indicators mean.

I can’t give you all the signals, mind you, nor the complete analysis and recommendations I gave my Real Wealth Report subscribers in the October issue. Naturally, those specifics are reserved for members.

Nonetheless, I want you to have some of the important observations I made in that issue. Hence, what follows are what I call my “momentum ranges” for 2012 for each of the most important markets.

The momentum ranges tell you, in no uncertain terms, whether a market is positive, or bullish in momentum on an annual basis; is neutral, or bearish in momentum.

This is important for it lets you know where the market’s “energy level” is, so to speak, and whether or not it has a long-term bullish or bearish bias to it.

But there’s more to it than just momentum. Also important are my annual trend indicating ranges, which tell you precisely what the trend is for each market as we head into the end of the year and for the coming year.

As I mentioned earlier, these are numbers I simply cannot give you. I base many of my specific recommendations on them, and by releasing those ranges to you I would be violating a cardinal concept of what my Real Wealth Report members pay me for. I’m sure you understand.

Nevertheless, the momentum ranges are critical and useful, and I want you to have them. I suggest that you print out this column and keep it by your side for the next couple of months as we head into year-end.

Let’s get started, first with …


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Gold. 2012 Momentum: $1,243.60 – $827.50. Clearly, with gold trading at the $1,620 level right now, it remains hugely positive in momentum as we head into the end of this year.

Plus, as long as it closes above $1,243.60 at year-end, it will be positive in annual momentum for 2012 as well — which is entirely consistent with my forecast that gold remains in a long-term bull market.

But, and importantly, gold is WAY above the upper range of the momentum figure at $1,243.60 — which also suggests that a correction is way overdue. That’s one of the reasons I’ve been short-term bearish lately and will likely remain bearish (as long as gold remains below $1,705 on a weekly closing basis).

Bottom line: Gold should NOT be purchased right now.

Instead, as I’ve mentioned in previous columns, hedges should be in place, and you should also be prepared to buy or add to gold positions when this correction is over.

Silver. 2012 Momentum: $19.78 to $10.77. Like gold, silver is in a long-term bull market with strong upward momentum. But short term, it’s far more overextended than gold is, and it is still vulnerable to a correction all the way down to test major support levels.

Yes, major support lies at the $19.78 level. But I do not expect silver to fall that low. Technical (chart) support lies at the previously published $25 and $23 levels, which I do expect to be tested heading into year-end.

Once those levels are tested, I expect silver’s long-term bull market to resume.

U.S. Dollar Index. 2012 Momentum: 93.89 to 77.01. Currently trading at the 77 level as I pen this issue, the U.S. Dollar Index is trying to hold a neutral annual momentum indication.

It’s a bit too early to say, but I do expect the Dollar Index to hold the lower number, 77.01, heading into year-end. If so, it would be fully consistent with my forecast that the dollar has entered a counter-trend bounce, one that could easily carry into 2012 — on the backbone of the crisis in the euro.

But don’t get overly bullish on the dollar. As sometime in 2012 I expect to see the dollar slide back into a negative momentum position and turn bearish again as the sovereign debt crisis begins to fully hit the United States.

The Euro. 2012 Momentum: 1.5069 to 1.2368. Naturally, the euro should be virtually the mirror image of the Dollar Index. Currently trading at the 1.37 level as I write this issue, the euro is neutral in momentum heading into year-end. However, based on other indicators I monitor, I do expect the euro to roll over from a bull market to a bear market, and before the end of the year.

That means we face the potential for a very sharp move down in the euro to quite possibly the 1.2368 level in the weeks ahead. Stay away from the euro at all costs right now.

Crude Oil.2012 Momentum: $93.89 to $77.01. At current price levels, crude oil is neutral in momentum, fully consistent with my view that oil is largely in a wide trading range right now.

A fully re-established bull market in oil would require it to close 2011 above the $93.89 level. I do not see that happening, just yet. I do see it happening, however, in 2012 — when the dollar resumes its long-term bear market.

Copper. 2012 Momentum: $3.53 to $1.60. Currently trading at $3.16, copper’s previously strong bull market is waning. It would take a year-end close back above at least the $3.53 level for copper to reestablish some upward bias to it. Short of that, copper is likely to drift lower into year-end.

As a commodity that’s extremely sensitive to what’s happening in the global economy, it’s hardly surprising that copper is weakening. I expect that to continue into 2012, with copper bottoming when the dollar peaks out. Long-term investments in copper are not suggested at this time.

Now, on to the major U.S. stock markets …


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The world’s wealthiest investors have known this for years and use their own “Privatized TIPS”. They’ve enjoyed a steady stream of income from their own Privatized TIPS program.

This has been their secret … until now.

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Click here for more about Privatized TIPS.



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U.S. Treasury TIPS are virtually a scam. They’re supposed to be indexed to inflation, but considering that the government’s “official” inflation numbers don’t include energy and food, they’re always woefully too low. And since TIPS adjust with official inflation and not real inflation, investors fall behind more and more every year.

The world’s wealthiest investors have known this for years and use their own “Privatized TIPS”. They’ve enjoyed a steady stream of income from their own Privatized TIPS program.

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The Dow Jones Industrials. 2012 Momentum: 14,232 to 12,232. In short, the Dow is currently neutral in momentum, suggesting a downward bias heading into the end of this year.

The Dow would only turn positive if it were to finish the year above the 14,232 level. I do not see that happening this year (but do see it happening by year-end 2012).

As I mentioned in prior columns, I do expect the Dow to head lower into year-end, and to test and break the 10,668 level. This would set it up for two moves in 2012 …

1. A test of major support at 9,034 and 8,000 and then …

2. A major rally out of that low that forms to close 2012 above 14,232.

This scenario is fully consistent with my other indicators which show that the U.S. economy is dramatically weakening — and with my long-term forecasts that when the bear market in the dollar resumes, stocks will reinflate (again) to the upside.

Best way to play the above: Steer clear of almost all stocks right now, take a short-term bearish position, as I’ve recommended in previous columns … conserve ammo … and be prepared to go aggressively long the U.S. stock markets sometime next year!

Ditto for the S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ.

Last but certainly not least …

U.S. 30-year Treasury Bonds. 2012 Momentum: 126 19/64 to 100 31/32. This market has the potential to shock most investors heading into year-end, and certainly in 2012.

Based on the above momentum range and an assortment of other indicators I use, I believe the U.S. bond markets are a disaster in the making; they are topping out in what could prove to be one of the biggest bubbles of all time.

I’ve been warning about a massive bear market in bonds. I believe it’s almost here, if not here already. Steer clear of bonds at all costs!

Best wishes, as always …


P.S. For my complete analysis and forecasts for important market moves as we head into the end of the year — and my very specific recommendations on how to profit from them — become a member of my Real Wealth Report.

At just $89 a year, it truly is a freaking bargain. Plus, you’ll be able to get the October issue that just published, and all the information and recommendations it contains. Click here now to join.

Your thoughts on “Important year-end signals!”

  1. Hi Larry,

    SPXU is approaching your sell @ $14.08. Do you still think things will turn around? I am your RWR member,

    Thanks for your insights,


    1. Hi DCS,

      No doubt the bounce or rally is stronger than I anticipated. But I remain bearish in here and believe the market will soon top out and head down sharply. — Larry

        1. I expected a double top then a sell-off before Christmas based on more bad news from China and Europe and Rating Agencies.

  2. Why pay $89 when Larry gives it all away for free here. His post above is nearly all of his monthly paid subscription. You’re not missing much by not getting the stock picks (they aren’t performing unless you go back several years ago and got into gold early).

    1. Let’s wait to see when it is time to buy. If he tells everyone what and when to buy immediately after he tells his subscribers, then I would also agree with you.

  3. Hi Larry,

    I am not a investor, I read larry every Monday, because I consider him a reliable source of information about what is happening in the world, he is very accurate. If I had money invested, I wouldn’t risk one day of valuable information. I definitively would pay $89. If he decides to share the exclusive information for his subscribers, even one day later, it could make a huge difference for some investments. ultimately how did everyone decided to join him? reading this kind of information and having some evidence of his accuracy.

    Best wishes

  4. Larry,

    Since your “More Gains Coming…Here’s Why” article touting various market shorting ETFs, the DOW has moved nearly 1000 pts straight up in a near record setting rally. Still waiting for that pullback or is it possible that equities are already being treated as commodities here and we should go long?

  5. You said Real Wealth Report was published last Friday; As a subscriber, I did not get an email. What gives?

  6. Hi Larry,

    Since you live in bangkok , have you got any insight in the local thai markets, any good range of stocks to buy and hold.


  7. Since everyone is being so honest about the monthly subscription, how often does Larry email or “flash update” you every month?

    1. I can answer that Zach. It’s totally dependent upon the markets. There have been years where I have sent out probably over a dozen flashes, and there have been years where there have only been a few. Flash alerts are market driven. — Best, Larry

  8. It sounds like some people expect a several thousand dollar service for $89 and an $89 service for free. The world is full of people who want something for nothing and who then are not satisfied with anything they get. I think RWR is a great service. If it is not worht $89 to you – WELL – GO DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!

  9. We are missing out on a big rally here. You mentioned in a previous video the top end of the range was 11,200-11,300 on the DOW. Sitting over 12,100 now. No serious pullback seems to be in store.

  10. Short term wrong Larry. You discounted the EFSF rally. Even if it bs, it supplies more liquidity and lower currency values for nearly all. In this light, picked up another 10% and think additonal 5-10% with strong physical demand still coming from China and India. Will begin to look to scale back in 5 days. Thanks. Larry will never get you killed but I have seen a few times in the last couple of years bailed out prior to 100-150 pt runs.

  11. Predicting year-end numbers is a fool’s game; not for the predictor who gets paid but the believer who does not understand the market. The only friend you have as a investor is the big trend. The markets are rigged, trading is near impossible unless your computer program trades for you at speeds Superman would envy. Slowly but surely, the trend to follow is the physical precious metals market versus the PM paper market. The more you follow and base trades on PM paper charts, the more disconnected form the REAL market you become. I have pointed this out ad nauseam, When companies that rely on silver application for manufacture face difficulty procuring future physical delivery, the physical market and price will call the shots— not the over-leveraged paper market. Raised margin hikes are and will lose the desired price- suppression effect as demand for physical silver will require delivery in metal, not dollars. The volatility in valuation clearly implies markets in turmoil, waiting for spot prices to drop to the low 20’s is useless as the recent quick bounce off 26 illustrates.

  12. Larry,
    You say in this article that as long as gold remains below $1,705 on a weekly closing basis you remain short-term bearish. At the moment (Friday morning) Gold is traiding at 1735 and has been between 1731 and 1752 the last 2 days. If by the end of today it should close above 1705, which is a destinct possibility, then do you consider this correction pretty much over or are you still expecting a sharp fall?

  13. Larry, I follow many good advisers but in my book you are one of the best!. I really like your videos and I know you are one of the best in the Weiss Research Team.
    Since I do follow you close, I do get a little worry when I see the gold at 1535 and moving up and I don’t hear from you. I do understand the service value and your time , but I think it would be a great idea if you would drop just a few lines and comment on a Alert email when mayor moves occurs in the markets ……something like …… Wait, don’t panic , I will give you the signals !!!….Buy or Sell ……. or something like that .
    Please remember some of us are like little children and we just need to know that you are watching us play in the park.
    As long as you seat at the bench ,calm,reading the news paper,we can look up see dad there and continue to have fun, knowing that we are being watched . If you get up and go to the bathroom and don’t tell us , we just get scare , panic and we star crying .
    Thats all.
    Thanks for all the good advice you give us , knowing you are not perfect!!!.

  14. Hi Larry,
    In my opinion Stock market will rally till next year.The reason I say this is German govt told Bankers to take 50% hit and they decided to do it.Second next year is election year in usa.Obama and Berneke will hype up everthing.
    It’s basically kicking the can down the road.You are right about one thing always use limit to minimize your risks.
    Your opinion is very much appreciated.
    Thank You.
    Sandeep Sharma

  15. The market is technically strong right now with the DOW and S&P 500 trading above their 200 day ma’s and the dollar sinking like a rock. All indications are that the market will head higher probably at least until the end of the year. Gold and SIlver also look like they are headed higher. Trailing stops should have been used on all inverse etf’s to lock in a profit when the market reversed. There’s no worse feeling than seeing a profitable position turn into a loss. I wouldn’t short this market unless there was a confirmed break of the major indices below their 200 day ma’s. Treasuries are another story as they have been sinking and look to sink further.

  16. I’m still waiting for gold to go down to $1169 as Larry stated over a year ago. I dont think treads and charts will ever predict the events of this unpredictable world. This euro deal will most likely crumble sooner or later. Unicredit will fail again along with many others and impact US just like it did in 1929 in spades.

  17. In this update of Oct 24 2011 you say that Gold is trading at the $1620 level. In fact, Spot Gold is $1743 as I write. You also said you would remain bearish as long as Gold closes the week below $1705. Based on this, I assume you are now short term bullish and recommend purchasing Gold? You say that Copper is trading at $3.16. In fact, Spot price is $3.67 as I write. What am I missing? I just looked at the Kitco spot prices for both Gold and Copper. How could your figures be so inaccurate and what does that say about your ability to analyze these markets? Or, and I can’t imagine this would be true, but is it possible you are deliberately misleading readers who are not subscribers to your newsletter?

    1. Hi Larry , When do you expect then market to top out and start the major down turn to start? If a peson has never bought physical gold where is the safest place to purchase and how should it be stored?

  18. Larry was it a type O or did I miss something when your U$ and oil values were the same @93.89-77.01? Darius

  19. I echo Rick’s question about gold. I got out as it pulled back from $1800 and decided to wait for around $1560 to get back in based on Larry’s charts. But the way things are going it looks like my exit price will be hit before my target price. So, Larry, has there been a fundimental shift in the market for gold and is it a buy now?

  20. Hi Larry, I follow you and subscribe to your newsletter since more than 5 years.
    Predictions are what they are, just predictions! I don’t envy you to make them 😉

    Last year, on Dec. 13, 2010, you sent out about the same type of message to your subscribers on year-end signals. Here’s in a nutshell what you were writing about GOLD:

    I now have concrete evidence from virtually all of my indicators that gold could fall to the $1,316 level, and then to the $1,250 level.

    Well, we all know what happened in 2011. So much so for “concrete evidence.” How can a single person investing by himself (herself) still believe in “predictions”?

    By the way, do you know that many people believe the Mayan prophecy about the end-of-the-Earth by Dec. 21, 2012?

    It’s a thin line between “prediction” and “prophecy.” Yet I do believe that an investor should not rely on any of these two. Just the fact, follow the trendline.

    Personally, I mostly look at charts, 85% chart – 15% fundamental. With simple indicators found on any good charting softwares.

    My suggestion to you: Keep up the good work! Follow the charts, and don’t try to fall on the Nostradamus camp :-)

  21. Larry Edelson’s disciplined approach to forecasting market trends has proven more accurate that any other of the six services I have subscribed. It’s easy to find alternative views that question his opinion but my experience has been to place more reliance on Larry than others. As far as the $89 subscription fee, don’t be a cheapskate. You’d pay more for a week’s training in a course on investment basics taught by an instructor that earns less than $50,000 per year that has never had any real skin in the game.

  22. I sold my physical gold coins at your advise. You said it would get down to $1535, $1482, $$1432 – so I sold at $1607, when it started sinking, only to find it rallying up to $1742. needless to say – I’M PISSED!

    Now I’ve cashed in with my money in hand and don’t know what to do.

    1. why on God’s green earth would u sell your physical gold ? Do u cash in your house insurance from month to moth hoping to save some money and praying this isn’t the month your house burns down. Never trade physical metal, only accumulate on dips.

    2. My point exactly, selling physical is a bad investment move. If you want to sell a PM position, sell only paper positions due to the plain-as-day fact that paper and physical are two different markets. You don’t see an ad in the local paper wanting to buy silver or gold futures do you? Smart money uses dips in spot price to buy more physical and someone bought yours on bad advice and as it turns out, a good price.

    3. @ Steve L

      Unless you’re cashing out for a major purchase or retirement, I don’t understand why anyone would liquidate any of their physical precious metal holdings during a pullback. The last couple weeks have been the time to BUY more physical. I could understand taking Larry’s advice and selling any paper gold/silver hoping for a profitable pullback. We could still see last week’s gains in precious metals erased in the near-term giving you a great price to renter the gold market. If you’re a precious metals trader, stick with the paper ETFs. Otherwise, keep on stacking.



  23. Larry, Also wondering if Feds do a Qie3 that will push dollar down and everything else up. So how could markets go down as your models indcate?

  24. Larry please reply to Richard above – I’ve been wondering the same thing. See above:

    Richard October 28, 2011 am31 8:34 am at 8:34 am


  25. Ditto to comment above… please address Richard’s question from “Richard October 28, 2011 am31 8:34 am at 8:34 am” either on this blog or in your Monday update.

    Thank you kindly :)

  26. I’ve been following Larry for months and for the most part he’s been right as rain on his calls. However I have a question concerning his most recent updates. Specifically I’d like to know about time lines. Larry has said he sees gold and silver taking dips from their current price points, so my question is how long would these dips last? Assuming gold does in fact correct all the way down to $1525 or even $1432 how long would such a pull back last? Obviously it’s impossible to play soothsayer hear as nobody has a crystal ball but there must be something that we can draw on from past experience in terms of cyclical behavior. For example, do these types of pull backs typically last 20-30 weeks? I guess the bottom line is how long can we expect a pull back to last if in fact Larry’s price points to the down side are realized?

  27. Hi, Larry.
    There seems to be a pretty well defined head-and-shoulders on GDX. Looks like this ETF can lose 25-30%.
    I am wondering if you would recommend to short GoldMiners at this point.

    Thanks a lot in advance.

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