I have never seen the markets coil up in tight trading ranges in late September like they’re doing this year. It can mean only one thing: Huge, explosive market moves are right around the corner.
Be sure to see my video update for this week.
Best wishes,
Larry
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Video Transcript
Good morning. This is Larry Edelson with my Uncommon Wisdom video market update for Monday, October 1.
We are continuing to see a rather tight but volatile market, with all the markets literally coiling up in springs. It’s highly unusual for the September period to see such sideways, but volatile, tightening trading markets with volume in most markets literally falling off a cliff.
So, I continue to be very certain that we are on the cusp of very big moves in many markets. And most likely, those moves will not be the moves you’ve seen recently.
I still remain bearish on gold, looking for a top in the stock market, and looking for a bottom in the dollar.
We are getting close to the point where there would be the potential for me to reverse those opinions, but we are not there yet. And I remain (convinced) with what my models are saying — which is to look for a top in gold, look for a top in stocks, and look for a bottom in the U.S. dollar.
Gold: As I wrote recently and you can see here on this chart, even (with) the latest rally — which occurred over Thursday and Friday of last week — gold has yet to take out its March 2012 high or its November 2011 high.
And given all the money-printing that’s going on — with China jumping in on the fray this past week — that’s pretty amazing.
That’s a subtle sign that we may be reaching a top here, and all this money-printing is not going to be the catalyst that sends gold to new record highs.
Ultimately, it will be — it was in the first phase of gold’s bull market. But we may have to wait for gold to really take off until the sovereign-debt crisis hits the United States. That’s the big atom bomb for the financial markets.
And we are not there yet. Most of the sovereign-debt worries are still, of course, focused on Europe.
Silver: Silver is pretty much the same. Silver hasn’t broken out yet despite all this money-printing. That’s somewhat not surprising because silver is more of an industrial metal; but nevertheless, silver has not broken out yet.
U.S. Dollar Index: The dollar is indeed trying to find a bottom in here. I believe it certainly will very soon. The euro has sold off rather sharply last week, and that’s lending support to the dollar. I’m starting to get some preliminary buy signals in the short- and intermediate-term for the dollar, so please stay tuned to my work there.
Dow Industrials: The Dow Industrials are starting to show some signs of weakness. This is a longer-term chart here. But you can still see we haven’t critically broken out yet. The Dow requires a close above the 14,200 level and we’re not there yet.
There’s nothing wrong with buying a breakout on the highs. In fact, that’s what you want to do. There are some times when buying low, so to speak, and selling high doesn’t work. There are times when it’s important to buy only breakouts, for example, of new highs.
Having said that, I believe we are really critically close to some major market turns in here.
So stay tuned to all of my work. Have a good week. This is Larry.
{ 17 comments… read them below or add one }
Larry,
All along you were saying that Gold will correct and there will be a downward move. There is no mention of that in this. Do you still think Gold will correct downwards now?
Thanks
Sun
I agree with your summing up this week, I think we are in for some major changes in the next couple of months, that will rock the worlds financial markets, as well as political developments that will shake the world causing immense misery and panic.
Oh my god … but what else can he do after the Dow never touched his 9000 level ( talked about it since 2011 ) , Gold never went to $140 and so o … and now it’s ” there is nothing wrong with buying the breakout ” . But really, what else can he d but fold ?
That should read ” Gold never went to $ 1400 ” of course
Larry:As always, look forward to your update video’s……..
Oh yes, it all sounds so familiar.
My predictions, meanwhile, hold true: As long as the banking Cabal is still at the reigns (and they are) there will be incremental ups and downs ups and downs ups and downs in both the stocks and in the metals.
Why?
That is how they ERODE all your short positions and STEAL your money. Parasites are the owners of the ETF funds in large part and control the markets, including the metals. They suck the blood of their victims.
Who are the victims? The millions of small investors—the ones Goldman Sucks calls “munchkins.”
Bernanke is handing an additional $40 billion per month to his banking buddies—the Cartel that controls the world economy.
Are they still in control? Apparently so, as they are still raking in the billions of FREE money, while the average American is being ground into the dust economically and financially.
Parasites still drain the lifeblood of America. When will the citizenry wake up and do something about it?
Both precious metals logged their best quarterly performance since 2010. Silver outperformed all asset classes, with platinum, gold and palladium all making large moves as well.
Although we all have our opinion as to what will take place soon, we should try to get the facts straight on what has actually transpired thus far.
Hey Larry, it would help tremendously if when you’re talking currently about a certain chart, that you actually accurately show that chart. There were two times on this video when your charts were only showing up until July of this year.
Yes I agree, Bret took the words I was going to say. Showing up to July doesn’t get it for me, It looks like when you expand the chart it is left justified instead of right justified.
Larry:
Your track record on Gold stinks. Your Spring and Summer predictions were wrong. YOu even admittted as much. Still think we are gong to the 1400s?
This last video was terrible. You played both sides. Why not just say ” I don’t know.”
JD
To JD…… you are something else too . You tell Larry how he missed the lows and all the next upswing as well but at the same time you still ask him if he thinks gold goes to $ 1400 ?
You still need his opinion .
By thye way , it’s not only Larry, all these ” Analysts ” have a way with words …. when you finished reading there stuff you are just as informed as you were before . But Larry got lots of compliments along the way up … .mainly on down days …. many subscribers here said : Thank You Larry , for guiding me .If Larry would say ..” I don’t know ” he would lose a lot of subscriber . That’s his livelyhood .
It’s interesting that Warren Buffet’s name comes up in reference to hating non interest bearing gold investments that have served these many people. I myself prefer the royalty trusts, such as Silver Wheaton which is an industrial metal, more than a precious metal for sovereign backing, with the dividend like nature of hard silver, and some gold coming in, at low base cost with mining expansion, seems the opposite of Buffets gold bug analogy, but yet cyclical in nature, perhaps more than Warren would prefer to warrant for his thunderous portfolio at Berkshire Hathaway. His critics should meditate off somewhere, as everyone is different, and have different interests and propensity for risk, which is why I chose the more conservative silver royalty trust.
Interesting news this week…with Iran’s currency collapsing. 40% drop in value..,wonder what country will be the next to follow in currency collapsing…another middle eastern country, or will Europe…hmmmmmm
A little up, a little down, a little up, then a little down—-as ALL short positions continue to get eroded.
The parasites are still stealing YOUR money!
The Gov. is hot on the trail of the perpetrators of the financial collapse of 2008, levying huge fines, milking some money first. Later on——hopefully—-jail time!!!!
We’ll see.
Here’s the problem: Larry is a technician. Do technical charts even matter when the markets are fixed and when the world banks can print money out of thin air? I think most would agree with Larry’s assessment long-term that the metals are going much higher. It’s just that one final “wash-out” in the metal and stock market that we are waiting for to see if he is right, and in all fairness to him, how can you use charts when the entire game is rigged? You can’t. They’re worthless (and I’ve spent 20 years doing technical charting and now think they are pretty much worthless)! So if you’re a long-termer buy the metals when you can and don’t look back. If you’re looking to trade these markets, good luck!
Analysts make money and lure subscribers by slinging words—–even if those words are just fluff. They make something appear as if it has value even when it does not.
Banks make money by adding fees upon fees, creating false value out of nothing, and charging exorbitant interest for it.
Is there much of a difference?