Uncommon Wisdom Daily
  • Home
  • Press
  • RSS
  • Login
  • Weiss Ratings
Text Size: smallmediumlarge
  • Articles
  • Videos
  • Blog
  • Experts
  • Resources
  • Media
  • Services

General

Share Email Print

$46,167 an Ounce!

Larry Edelson | August 2, 2010

Larry Edelson

I have some important ground to cover with you today, so let me get started right away — but first,
with a warning I want to get on the official record …

No matter what happens in the world today …

No matter what happens in the markets …

No matter how bad the economic news may be …

Nor how positive it may seem at times …
Hold on to all your core gold holdings!

That’s especially important for you to understand today — because so many analysts are now saying that gold’s recent decline is the start of something big, a disaster in the gold market … and they want to shake you out of your positions.

But don’t you dare fall for it. Because if you do, you will be sorry.

Why can I say that so with such conviction? Simple: Gold is a win-win investment. Period.

First, and foremost, understand this: There are really only two possible economic scenarios that could unfold going forward …

Scenario #1: [LEAST LIKELY] The current spate of bad economic news abates … the stock market’s recent rally continues … talk of a double-dip recession recedes … the U.S. economy begins to truly recover.

All looks hunky-dory. The Federal Reserve’s efforts to save the U.S. economy and financial system succeed.

So what happens next under this, albeit least likely, scenario?

The credit crunch affecting homeowners and businesses starts to ease … banks start lending more money … credit flows through the pipelines …

And the trillions of paper dollars the Federal Reserve has created begin to work their way through the system.

In a year or two, perhaps less, normal credit creation has fully resumed. Our fractional reserve banking system takes over and begins multiplying the lending again, up to $9 for every new dollar of money created by the Federal Reserve.

Nearly $18 trillion of largely watered down money begins to flood the U.S. economy.

But because it was money that had no reason for existence to begin with … and was merely monopoly money printed up by the Federal Reserve — guess what happens?

Inflation takes off to the upside like a bat out of hell.

And no matter how hard the Federal Reserve tries to reverse its policies and reign in the inflation, prices for almost everything begin to move up very sharply.

Obviously, gold will continue to do quite nicely under this scenario. How nicely? I’ll tell you in a minute.


First, consider …

Scenario #2 [MOST LIKELY]: The recent slew of bad economic news continues … the U.S. economy goes from bad to worse … stocks plunge …

And it becomes painfully clear that government and central banks’ rescue efforts have failed. Here and in Europe, economies slump again, and sovereign debt defaults steamroll across the globe.

The Fed and other central banks pump trillions more dollars into their economies.

But all to no avail, because it also becomes painfully clear to almost everyone that countries in Europe and the U.S. are BANKRUPT. And so are their central banks.

What happens under this scenario?

The euro and the U.S. dollar race each other to the bottom of the heap of paper currencies that have failed. Both currencies dramatically lose purchasing power … and the entire Western world plunges into a depression.

The world’s monetary system is effectively destroyed, and collapses in a quagmire of debts that can never be repaid. A new monetary system is ushered in.

 Whatever you do, hold on to your gold holdings — or you'll be sorry you didn't.
Whatever you do, hold on to your gold holdings — or you’ll be sorry you didn’t.

The Bottom Line …

In Scenario #1 — I see gold easily hitting my MINIMUM TARGET of $2,300 an ounce, the inflation-adjusted high that would be equivalent to what $850 gold was in January 1980.

So to me, $2,300 as a minimum target for gold is a fait accompli.

But in Scenario #2 — gold could easily exceed $2,300 an ounce … and head to $5,000 an ounce or even more. Perhaps even $46,167 an ounce, which is what gold would have to be priced at if the Fed monetized the country’s 287 million ounces of gold reserves and geared it to the current national debt of $13.25 trillion.

So you see, no matter how you look at it, gold is cheap. And it’s your number one insurance policy going forward. Don’t you forget it.

Moreover, you should use any weakness in gold and gold shares to accumulate more positions. Especially my favorites, names like Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), Goldcorp Inc. (GG) and Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC).

And always keep my four mining share rules in mind, too …

Rule #1: Never invest in just one mining company. Rather, invest in a minimum of three at a time for diversification.

Rule #2: Stay away from mining companies that hedge more than 50% of their in-ground gold reserves, or their annual gold production. In a rising gold market, those so-called “hedges” could cause serious losses.

Rule #3: For gold mining shares, I like to use a trailing 10% stop loss to help reduce risk. Don’t lower the stop when the market moves against you.

But raise it each time the stock gains 3% from your entry price on a closing basis. If you’re stopped out, don’t fret. Assuming there hasn’t been any serious adverse fundamental change in the company, there should be ample opportunity to get back in — either on the next dip, or when the stock shows renewed strength.

Rule #4: Always keep the big picture in view. The gold strategies I’m talking about here are designed for your core, long-term portfolio. What the price of gold does from one day to the next should not be an issue for you. You’re riding a major trend. Let it do most of the work for you.

Best wishes,

Larry

P.S. ALL of my specific picks in gold shares, alternative gold investments, oil, natural resources — and more — to help you protect and grow your money for years to come, are available via membership in my Real Wealth Report.

At $99, it is truly a bargain, and I would not be surprised if just one of my recommendations covers the cost of the membership several times over. Click here to join now.


About Uncommon Wisdom

For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com

Uncommon Wisdom (UWD) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, and Tony Sagami. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in UWD, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in UWD are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Marci Campbell, Selene Ceballo, Amber Dakar, Roberto McGrath, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Marty Sleva, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig.

Attention editors and publishers! Uncommon Wisdom issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:

This investment news is brought to you by Uncommon Wisdom. Uncommon Wisdom is a free daily investment newsletter from Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, precious metals, natural resources, Asian and South American markets. From time to time, the authors of Uncommon Wisdom also cover other topics they feel can contribute to making you healthy, wealthy and wise. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com.

From time to time, Uncommon Wisdom may have information from select third-party advertisers known as “external sponsorships.” We cannot guarantee the accuracy of these ads. In addition, these ads do not necessarily express the viewpoints of Uncommon Wisdom or its editors. For more information, see our terms and conditions.

© 2010 by Weiss Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 15430 Endeavour Drive, Jupiter, FL 33478

Larry Edelson has nearly 33 years of investing experience with a focus in the precious metals and natural resources markets. His Real Wealth Report (a monthly publication) and Resource Windfall Trader (weekly) provide a continuing education on natural resource investments, with recommendations aiming for both profit and risk management.

For more information on Real Wealth Report, click here.
For more information on Resource Windfall Trader, click here.

Share Email
Tweet

{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }

jj August 2, 2010 am31 10:59 am at 10:59 am

Don’t call the U.S. Dollar and other fiat currencies money.They aren’t money.They are fiat currencies.There is no monetary system in the world,There is a fiat currency system.Gold has been regarded as money for thousands of years.It has the necessary attributes of money.Fiat currencies have failed as stores of value and therefore are not money.I don’t know why you are recommending using 10% stops.That would be OK for short term traders but not for long term investors.

Reply

Ashara August 2, 2010 am31 11:49 am at 11:49 am

I wish to be a member

Reply

Ash August 2, 2010 pm31 7:46 pm at 7:46 pm

Larry, while I agree overall with your logic, is it not possible that gold could fall sharply when everyone panics and rushes to get their money out of all investments like they did last time around?
Why will that same scenario not occur again?

Reply

Louis August 3, 2010 am31 6:50 am at 6:50 am

Call me crazy but isn´t everything a fiat currency, including gold? Dollars have value because people believe they have value so those people give you goods for your dollars. Whats the difference with gold? You are not going to eat it or build a house out of it. The vast majority isn’t used to make jewelry or electronic components, so why is it ¨real money¨ and not just a fiat currency if its value just based on people´s belief, kind of like euros, or dollars. This is not a smart ass remark, I am a novice at all this and this is actually what I am wondering about gold.

Reply

Louis August 3, 2010 am31 6:57 am at 6:57 am

I would like feed back on the following idea from anyone who knows what they are talking about. I was in Australia for several months and I was pretty impressed by the place. The country seems well run, they have good geographic advantage being close to China and India, and they have tons of natural resources, especially iron and copper. You can get 5 year CDs at almost any bank in Australia, including Citibank and other big internationals, with a 6.5% interest rate. Compound that with what I see as the likely hood of an appreciating Oz dollar and a depreciating US dollar and you could possibly do 15% a year there, with a bottom not likely to be less than 5% in the worst scenario, and that is a very safe investment. Am I missing anything or would buying those CDs be a great place to put some money for a while?

Reply

rob August 4, 2010 am31 11:59 am at 11:59 am

I don’t worry about small corrections. I’m in for the long haul. I’ve set my stops at 20-25% and I sleep like a baby at night.

Reply

Cancel reply

Leave a Comment

I agree to the Terms and Conditions of this Website.

Previous post: This One's Headed To The Moon!

Next post: Lock and Load With the Silver Bullet

  • Sign Up for FREE Updates

    Enter your name and email to receive free Uncommon Wisdom updates delivered directly to your inbox.We respect your privacy

  • Advertising

  • Advertising

  • Market Update

    Click an index for a graph of its recent activity:

    U.S.

    Wed 2/08/12, 5:30pm
    Index Last Change
    DOW
    NASDAQ 2,916 +0.0
    NASDAQ
    S&P 500 1,350 +2.9
    S&P 500

    Europe

    Thu 2/09/12, 7:33am
    Index Last Change
    FTSE 100 5,886 +9.9
    FTSE 100
    CAC 40 3,422 +12.0
    CAC 40
    DAX 6,788 +39.3
    DAX

    Asia

    Thu 2/09/12, 1:28am
    Index Last Change
    HANG SENG 21,010 -8.5
    HANG SENG
    NIKKEI 225 9,002 -13.3
    NIKKEI 225
    CSI 300 2,529 +1.0
    CSI 300
  • Media & Events

    Recent Media

    Talk Digital Network - February 2, 2012
    Mining The Miners

  • Advertising

  • News

    Holdout States May Join $25 Billion Mortgage Settlement February 09, 2012
    Greece Debt Talks Fail to Reach Full Deal February 09, 2012
    World Stocks Inch Higher February 09, 2012
    Chinese Inflation Continues to Slow February 09, 2012
    European Central Banks to Offer New Stimulus February 09, 2012
    US Stock Futures Decline Before ECB - Bloomberg February 09, 2012
  • Find us on Facebook

  • Weiss Ratings - Top-Rated Banks, Credit-Unions, Insurers

  • Advertising

  • About Us
  • Contact
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Privacy Policy
  • Whitelist Information
  • Advertising
©2012 Uncommon Wisdom Daily. All Rights Reserved.
Weiss Research, Inc., founded in 1971, has a long history of providing research and analysis designed to empower investors with information and tools to make more informed, independent decisions along with an equally long history of public service. [More »]